Internets, Help Me Find A Citation! Does Any State Include Education Data in Estimating Future Needs for Prison Capacity?

I've seen variations of this assertion made around the internets, but I've never been able to find a valid citation:

"A number of states go so far as to incorporate third grade reading scores into their formula for predicting the needs for future prison construction."

One version says it was a speech by a "governor of Arizona", another specifically cites California.

Update: I did find the study,  Public Safety, Public Spending - Forecasting America's Prison Population 2007-2011  which is totally silent on reading rates or illiteracy, but does mention the impact of the three-strikes law and drug convictions.

Update #2--John Wills Lloyd did some research.  Here are his results:

The idea is alive and well on the Internet, but I didn't find anything in the literature; examples of the former follow.

I remember that Reid Lyon used the argument, but I think it was simply a correlation. Apparently, Russ Whitehurst thinks it's correct.

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Interview with Russ Whitehurst at Children of the Code

http://www.childrenofthecode.org/interviews/whitehurst.htm:

[Q] David Boulton: We were interviewing Lesley Morrow, the Past-President of the International Reading Association, and she made a statement which flabbergasted me. She said this was a fact: that there are some states that determine how many prison cells to build based on reading scores.

[A] Dr. Grover (Russ) Whitehurst: Yes. Again, the predictability of reading for life success is so strong, that if you look at the proportion of middle schoolers who are not at the basic level, who are really behind in reading, it is a very strong predictor of problems with the law and the need for jails down the line.

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Article by Dr. Lynell Burmark, Executive Director, 1000 Days to Success School Network, Associate, Thornburg Center for Professional Development, in the e-newsletter, MultiMedia Schools January/February 2001: http://www.infotoday.com/MMSchools/jan01/burmark.htm But the reality is that, in California at least, if you don't know how to read by the end of fourth grade, the state is building you a prison cell.

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The Importance of Investing in Literacyby Linda Katz,  Executive Director, Children's Literacy Initiative (CLI) http://www.cliontheweb.org/investing1.html The governor of Indiana has stated that determining the number of new prisons to build is based, in part, on the number of second graders not reading at second-grade level. (Education Week, November 3, 1999) In California, the percentage of children who never make it past the fourth-grade reading level is used to help gauge the number of future prison beds to fund. (Washington Post, July 6, 2004)

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The Wonder of Reading is a southern California nonprofit that supports library development in the public schools. http://www.wonderofreading.org/statistics.htm: Evidence shows that children who do not read by third grade often fail to catch up and are more likely to drop out of school, take drugs, or go to prison.  So many nonreaders wind up in jail that Arizona officials have found they can use the rate of illiteracy to help calculate future prison needs.

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The Literacy Company developed proprietary speed reading course.  On their research page, they write http://www.readfaster.com/education_stats.asp: When the State of Arizona projects how many prison beds it will need, it factors in the number of kids who read well in fourth grade. [source: Arizona Republic (9-15-2004) Advertisement by SheaHomes Inc. www.sheahomes.com]

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http://www.writeexpress.com/LearnToRead/research/literacystatistics.html: Two-thirds of students who cannot read proficiently by the end of the 4th grade will end up in jail or on welfare. The fourth grade is the watershed year.

Thanks, John!  After I get through finals, I'll write to the Corrections departments for Arizona and California to see if I can get confirmation.  I've already asked Snopes to check it out.

 

Comments

[John Wills Lloyd]

Liz, I'm not sure whether your system displays trackbacks, so I'm dropping a URL here. I analyzed some data on this topic and put the results into a post on Teach Effectively:

http://TeachEffectively.com/2007/12/12/reading-imprisonment/

[CJ]

I originally heard this from my local school superintendent. His version was about second grade success.

[Robert Jones]

Above is a URL for a source that from all indications is an original quote on this subject. But, it is the source of the quote only. No supporting data for the quote is given in the article. The quote is actually near the bottom of the first page of the article. I believe this quote has been refrenced and requoted to fit circumstances of later versions of the original.

[Robert Jones]

http://www.annenberginstitute.org/Challenge/pubs/cj/v2n2/pg1.html

Sorry my mistake. Here is the URL to go with my previous comment. Oops!

[Liz]

Thanks, Robert!

How Schools Can Work Better for the Kids Who Need the Most
Annenberg Challenge
Challenge Journal
VOLUME 2, NUMBER 2
SPRING 1998

When generations of adults pass on those advantages to their children -- reading to them, listening to them, expecting the best of them -- a "social capital" builds up that fosters and perpetuates success, many analysts now agree. Creating that legacy takes time, but leaving it undone bears grim implications. "Based on this year's fourth-grade reading scores," observes Paul Schwartz, a principal in residence at the U. S. Department of Education, "California is already planning the number of new prison cells it will need in the next century."

Still looks like a urban legend to me. After the holidays I'll write an actual letter to the CA dept. of corrections.

[Louise Christiansen]

If you have finished your research, I would love to know what you finally heard from the "horse's mouth" on this subject. I would like to use the information in the ENG 101 class I teach, but I hate to perpetuate a myth no matter how good it is for putting the fear of God in them. lol. thx

[Faith Umstattd]

Regarding the comment about California looking at 3rd-4th grade reading levels to determine how many jail cells to build, it's apparently FALSE. I called the California Department of Corrections and spoke with Terry Thornton in the Communications Department (916-445-4950) and she says it's an urban legend. She says there are about 100 factors that determine how many jail cells they will build and child reading levels is not on the list. She welcomes anyone to call her to confirm.

[h brown]

I just called NC to try and track down the same thing. They said this is also not the case. No reading scores used. Anyone know differently? I'm working on a presentation and would love to use this. Thanks H Brown