Anti-Vaccine Terminology Defined: The Greenburg Gambit and the Natural Decline Gambit

Inspired by a comment by Krebiozen  at Respectful Insolence:

• The "Greenberg Gambit" is the claim that diseases have not disappeared, they have just been relabeled as something else. 
• The "Natural Decline Gambit" is  also known as "Vaccines Didn't Save Us" 
• The two gambits are distinct and not interchangeable, but when an anti-vaccine advocate deploys one gambit and fails, the other is often then advanced. 
• Both are counter-factual.

The "Greenberg" in question is one Bernard Greenberg, and he's being mis-represented.  The 1962 edition of  J.I. Rodale's The Encyclopedia of Common Diseases (Rodale Books Inc., Emmaus, PA) included the following assertion (emphasis added): 

"In May of 1960, Dr. Ratner chaired a panel discussion, at the 120th Annual Meeting of the Illinois Medical Society to review the increasing rise in paralytic polio in the U.S. The proceedings were reprinted in the August, 1960, Illinois Medical Journal which exposed the Salk vaccine as a frank and ineptly disguised fraud. One of the experts on the panel, statistician Dr. Bernard Greenberg, who went on to testify at Congressional hearings, revealed how data had been manipulated to hide the dangers and ineffectiveness of the vaccine from the pubic. Dr. Greenberg explained that the perceived overall reduction in polio cases was achieved by changing the criteria by which polio was diagnosed. "

In 2007, a professor at Seton Hall, Thomas W. Kavanagh, researched the background of Rodale's claim of Greenberg's views, publishing his results on the Web forum  Medical Knowlege Base:

Conclusions:

As noted above, Greenberg did note how data had been handled in a "very misleading way." But he ascribed much of that to the mass media, singling out a "recent Associated Press release" (1962:95), not to a 'medical establishment' conspiracy [single quotes enclose my terms]

Greenberg did describe how the methods for calculating incidents of polio had changed from 1955 to 1959. But at no point did he, nor anyone else on the panel, ascribe this to malicious intent by a 'medical establishment.' Indeed, he explicitly commented that the post-1959 were "improved" methods of diagnosis" (1962:97) [my emphasis].

Again, Greenberg did question the effectiveness of the Salk vaccine as being unknown because of the statistical problems, but not of vaccines in general. Indeed, Greenberg eagerly awaited both a live virus vaccine (more effective), and an oral vaccine (as the primary route of polio infection was oral).

Ultimately, the way the 1960 panel discussion is being presented today is probably even more misleading than the way the 1955-59 statistics were then.

There's lies, damned lies, and statistics; and then there's the Web.

Thomas W. Kavanagh, Ph.D. Seton Hall University

By all accounts, Greenberg was a remarkable man, and I for one am grateful to Dr. Kavanagh for defending his honor.

The Natural Decline Gambit in its natural habitat can be observed here: 

http://www.whale.to/a/lie_effective.html

Sample statements"

• "We are taught by the authorities that vaccines protect us against eventual aggressive viruses and microbes, and, therefore, prevent contagious illnesses and epidemics. This lie has been perpetuated for 150 years despite the INEFFECTIVENESS of vaccines in protecting against illnesses...the USELESSNESS of certain vaccines, notably, TB & Tetanus..Diptheria....Influenza and hepatitis B."----Guylaine Lanctot (a former Canadian M.D. )
• "The decline in infectious diseases in developed countries had nothing to do with vaccinations, but with the decline in poverty and hunger (Dr. Buchwald draws the Committee’s attention to a series of about 50 graphs in his book which show that vaccinations have no effect on the decline of infectious diseases).-- Gerhard Buchwald, M.D., 1920-2009, a committed German anti-vaccine activist.
• "Up to 90% of the total decline in the death rate of children between 1860-1965 because of whooping cough, scarlet fever, diptheria, and measles occured before the introduction of immunisations and antibiotics."---Archie Kalokerinos, M.D (28 September 1927 – 1 March 2012
• "According to the records of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, from 1911 to 1935 the four leading causes of childhood deaths from infectious diseases in the U.S.A. were diptheria, pertussis, scarlet fever, and measles. However, by 1945 the combined death rates from these causes had declined by 95% before the implementation of mass vaccine programs."--Harold Buttram MD, anti-vaccine doctor and autism quack.
• "All infectious diseases decreased without vaccinations. Not only did vaccines have no influence over the decrease of the diseases, the contrary is true, they slowed down the downward trend of all diseases. The best example for this is polio. After the majority of people were vaccinated, severe epidemics occurred, such as in 1962 in the German speaking countries, after vaccination had been in full force for 3 years. Dr Buchwald carefully collected the facts in his book, which prove this fact beyond doubt for all infectious diseases38."----Anita Petek-Dimmer, German-born Swiss anti-vaccine activist.

Fills you with confidence about the accuracy of their opinions, doesn't it?