On May 24 2016, a young Mexican science enthusiast posted a 2 minute video to his Facebook page. (Today, June 4, it has been viewed 7 million times.) Kate Tietje, who writes the advertising vehicle Modern Alternative Health, took umbrage, and posted "Vaccines Don’t Cause Autism? How Clever…"
My friend Karen Ernst analyzed Ms.Tietje's response at her blog The Vaccine Blog, in the post Anti-Vaxxers Defeated by Twelve-Year-Old Whiz Kid
One of Karen's commenters remarked:
The one thing about her post you didn’t mention is how [Katie Tietje] linked to a handful of papers on pubmed claiming that is “proof” of her side. I’d love to see someone go through and explain about each of those papers.
Ask and you shall receive.
Tietje explained how she collected the papers she listed:
Anyway. You get the point. There is clear evidence. And these are just the studies I was able to pull up in about 15 minutes’ time. Imagine if I spent hours? It would be more than that kid spent — and far more than “reading a forwarded email.” (Sounds more like his ‘research’ honestly.)
In 15 minutes of research,Tietje would hardly have had time to read each of the abstracts, let alone evaluate each paper on its merits. Let's see what the convenience sample contained.
Papers 1 and 2 are by the research team of Lujia Tomljenovic and Christopher A. Shaw. The World Health Organization's Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety reviewed two of Shaw & Tomljenovic's papers at their June, 2012 meeting:
The GACVS reviewed 2 published papers alleging that aluminium in vaccines is associated with autism spectrum disorders and the evidence generated from quantitative risk assessment by a US FDA pharmacokinetic model of aluminium-containing vaccines.
GACVS considers that these 2 studies are seriously flawed. The core argument made in these studies is based on ecological comparisons of aluminium content in vaccines and rates of autism spectrum disorders in several countries. In general, ecological studies cannot be used to assert a causal association because they do not link exposure to outcome in individuals, and only make correlations of exposure and outcomes on population averages. Therefore their value is primarily for hypothesis generation. However, there are additional concerns with those studies that limit any potential value for hypothesis generation. These include: incorrect assumptions about known associations of aluminium with neurological disease, uncertainty of the accuracy of the autism spectrum disorder prevalence rates in different countries, and accuracy of vaccination schedules and resulting calculations of aluminium doses in different countries.
Paper #1 Tietje titled it “Aluminum adjuvants in vaccines likely causally linked to autism” = Do aluminum vaccine adjuvants contribute to the rising prevalence of autism? Tomljenovic L, Shaw CA. J Inorg Biochem. 2011 Nov;105(11):1489-99. doi: 10.1016/j.jinorgbio.2011.08.008. Epub 2011 Aug 23. which was eviscerated here, both by the author Orac Knows and by the commenters: And global warming is caused by the decrease in the number of pirates or: Why an inorganic chemistry journal should not publish a vaccine epidemiology paper. This is one instance where you really should read the comments.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #2 Tietje titled it "Injected aluminum causes central nervous system toxicity" = Aluminum in the central nervous system (CNS): toxicity in humans and animals, vaccine adjuvants, and autoimmunity. Shaw CA, Tomljenovic L. Immunol Res. 2013 Jul;56(2-3):304-16. doi: 10.1007/s12026-013-8403-1. This paper has been widely criticized, but I will cite just one, the epic post 124 papers that DO NOT prove vaccines cause autism (by a trauma surgeon)
119) Aluminum in the central nervous system (CNS): toxicity in humans and animals, vaccine adjuvants, and autoimmunity It’s our friends Tomljenovic and Shaw again, and it’s yet another not-a-scientific-paper, but hypotheses and conjecture. This is the time when I should point out that this study was funded by the Dwoskin Family Foundation, which was founded by Claire Dwoskin. Mrs. Dwoskin is a board member of the horribly misnamed National Vaccine Information Center, a public charity anti-vaccination advocacy group. Shaw and Tomljenovic have been speakers at conferences with such other speakers as antivax neurosurgeone Russell Blaylock, MD, NVIC founder Barbara Loe Fisher, and Andrew Wakefield. As I’m not terribly fond of ad hominems, I’ll stop there.”
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #3 Tietje titled it "Mercury, lead, and aluminum levels linked to autism" = Assessment of Hair Aluminum, Lead, and Mercury in a Sample of Autistic Egyptian Children: Environmental Risk Factors of Heavy Metals in Autism. Mohamed Fel B, Zaky EA, El-Sayed AB, Elhossieny RM, Zahra SS, Salah Eldin W, Youssef WY, Khaled RA, Youssef AM. Behav Neurol. 2015;2015:545674. doi: 10.1155/2015/545674. Epub 2015 Oct 5. 1. It’s hair analysis which is notoriously unreliable and may be a red flag pseudoscientific grifting. "Mercury, lead, and aluminum levels were positively correlated with maternal fish consumptions, living nearby gasoline stations, and the usage of aluminum pans, respectively."
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #4 Tietje titled it "Positive association between vaccines and autism" = A positive association found between autism prevalence and childhood vaccination uptake across the U.S. population. Delong G. J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2011;74(14):903-16. doi: 10.1080/15287394.2011.573736. A number of people have deconstructed the fatal weaknesses of this paper. I summarize here, as well as link to previous scrutiny. Critiques of DeLong 2011: Fatal flaws.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #5 Tietje titled it "Mercury and aluminum together are neurotoxic" = Exposure to Mercury and Aluminum in Early Life: Developmental Vulnerability as a Modifying Factor in Neurologic and Immunologic Effects José G. Dórea Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015 Feb; 12(2): 1295–1313. Published online 2015 Jan 23. doi: 10.3390/ijerph120201295 This is a long speculative paper asserting that the two elements in the paper can be harmful. Most of the citations for mercury's harms are various papers by the Geiers. Also cited unironically: Shaw (see above) and Seneff.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Papers 6, 7, 8, and 10 are by Geier père et fils plus an assortment of other authors, such as Paul King and Lisa Sykes who run the anti-vaccine organization CoMed. Geier the father is a delicensed physician; Geier the son has a batchelor's degree and has been sanctioned for practicing medicine without a licence. You can read criticisms of their scientific escapades, for example: Plagiarism Complaint Why the latest Geier & Geier paper is not evidence that mercury in vaccines causes autism; Dr. Mark Geier Severely Criticized; Looking back at two decades of Geier Is Mark Geier finished as an expert witness in the vaccine court? and Chemical castration of autistic children leads to the downfall of Dr. Mark Geier.
The Geiers are practicing Fairy Tale Science. In this case, what the Geiers are doing is continuing to collect "evidence" that exposure to minute quantities of ethyl mercury (in the form of thimerosal) can cause autism. To put it another way, they are asserting that autism is a novel form of mercury poisoning.
"Tooth Fairy science" is an expression coined by Harriet Hall, M.D., (aka the SkepDoc) to refer to doing research on a phenomenon before establishing that the phenomenon exists. Tooth Fairy science is part of a larger domain that might be called Fairy Tale science: research that aims to confirm a farfetched story believed by millions of scientifically innocent minds. Fairy Tale science uses research data to explain things that haven't been proven to have actually happened. Fairy Tale scientists mistakenly think that if they have collected data that is consistent with their hypothesis, then they have collected data that confirms their hypothesis. Tooth Fairy science seeks explanations for things before establishing that those things actually exist.
It was a reasonable concern in 1999 that something about thimerosal exposure might contribute to autism. Since that time, numerous studies have been done evaluating that hypothesis. In 2006, Offit and Gerber published a review of the evidence to that date: Vaccines and Autism: A Tale of Shifting Hypotheses, summarizing the studies in Table 2 (below):
In 2010, Hurley, Tadrous and Miller published Thimerosal-Containing Vaccines and Autism: A Review of Recent Epidemiologic Studies. Remember, as Fallacy Man has shown, systematic reviews are the strongest form of evidence. Multiple lines of evidence show that thimerosal in vaccines is not causal in autism.
But back to analyzing the papers that Tietje is promoting:
Paper #6 Tietje titled it "Mercury exposure can cause autism" = A comprehensive review of mercury provoked autism. Geier DA, King PG, Sykes LK, Geier MR. Indian J Med Res. 2008 Oct;128(4):383-411. This paper is founded on the argument that symptoms of mercury intoxication are similar to autism. They aren't. In 2003, Nelson and Bauman published Thimerosal and Autism? Their table 2, comparing and contrasting the symptoms of autism to mercury intoxication, has been helpfully summarized in this infographic:
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #7 Tietje titled it "Mercury is has a causal link with the development of ASDs" = Blood mercury levels in autism spectrum disorder: Is there a threshold level? Geier DA, Audhya T, Kern JK, Geier MR. Acta Neurobiol Exp (Wars). 2010;70(2):177-86. More Fairy Tale Science.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #8 Tietje titled it "Mercury causes ASDs (even more evidence)" = Evidence of parallels between mercury intoxication and the brain pathology in autism. Kern JK, Geier DA, Audhya T, King PG, Sykes LK, Geier MR. Acta Neurobiol Exp (Wars). 2012;72(2):113-53. See the previous commentary.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #9 Tietje titled it "Original research “proving” no link between mercury and ASD was in error; a strong link exists" = Blood levels of mercury are related to diagnosis of autism: a reanalysis of an important data set. Desoto MC, Hitlan RT. J Child Neurol. 2007 Nov;22(11):1308-11. "We can conclude absolutely nothing about the association of ethylmercury in vaccines to autism from these data." Critiques of the Desoto and Hitlan paper, summarized.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #10 Tietje titled it "Susceptibility to mercury toxicity linked to ASDs" = A prospective study of mercury toxicity biomarkers in autistic spectrum disorders. Geier DA, Geier MR. J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2007 Oct;70(20):1723-30. The biomarkers mentioned were porphyrins. The idea that elevated porphyrins could be a biomarker for autism arose from a paper by Nataf et al published in 2006 that has been widely debunked. This paper also advocates for chelating autistic children, a useless and abusive medical medical intervention. See for example Porphyrins and Autism, Porphyrins, autism and enviromental militia, Autism Omnibus – Liz Mumper.. you get the drift.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #11 Tietje titled it "Inflammatory bowel disease linked to ASDs (which is what Wakefield’s original research showed, too…it’s been replicated!!)" = Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Among Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorders. Doshi-Velez F, Avillach P, Palmer N, Bousvaros A, Ge Y, Fox K, Steinberg G, Spettell C, Juster I, Kohane I. Inflamm Bowel Dis. 2015 Oct;21(10):2281-8. doi: 10.1097/MIB.0000000000000502. First of all: Wakefield claimed the following chain: vaccine-strain measles virus entered the intestines; the virus particles caused a unique kind of lesion, allowing the intestines to become leaky; these microleaks allowed particular proteins to enter the blood, and these proteins traveled to the brain, thus causing autism. What Doshi-Velez et al. found is that autistic individuals had a higher rate of inflammatory bowel disease, or to put it another way, that IBD is a co-morbid condition with autism. Doshi-Velez et al. do not argue that vaccination caused the increase in IBD in autistic people.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
Paper #12 Tietje titled it "IBD and autism linked (again, replicated)" = Brain effects of chronic IBD in areas abnormal in autism and treatment by single neuropeptides secretin and oxytocin. Welch MG, Welch-Horan TB, Anwar M, Anwar N, Ludwig RJ, Ruggiero DA. J Mol Neurosci. 2005;25(3):259-74. This is a rat study. As Fallacy Man so lucidly explains in his post The Hierarchy of Evidence:
Finally, I want to stress that the problem with animal studies is not a statistical one, rather it is a problem of applicability. You can (and should) do animal studies by using a randomized controlled design. This will give you extraordinary statistical power, but, the result that you get may not actually be applicable to humans. In other words, you may have very convincingly demonstrated how X behaves in mice, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will behave the same way in humans.
Clear evidence that vaccines cause autism? No. Score: 0/12.
So Tietje threw up a double handful of papers and failed with all of them. Is this a surprise? No, but she does win a new award:
In case you haven't viewed Marco Arturo's video, here it is
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