I Speak of Dreams

Malicious Misinformation Alert: These Are NOT the CDC Guidelines for Opening Schools

Seen this wandering through your social media channels? Here's what pediatrician Jane Macintyre has to say:

If you see this graphic, there are at least three things you need to know:

1. The CDC usually uses their logo, not clip art.
2. The CDC knows how to spell ‘guidelines’.
The CDC would say “only pre-packed boxes”, NOT “pre-packages boxes”.

Parents and guardians, here’s what you should know: here is the actual link to educate yourself and the rest of humanity: https://bit.ly/2LJFnXh

It clearly states

"Schools can determine, in collaboration with state and local health officials to the extent possible, whether and how to implement the guidelines or not.

I, Liz, think this clearly fake "CDC" infographic is from a certain faction in the "vaccines are dangerous" movement, to cause parents to fear and doubt the CDC. I have seen it spread by members of that faction.

The Special Kids' Advocacy Agency (in New York State) also had some things to say about the accuracy of this infographic

Leah Russin, co-founder of Vaccinate California, had more to say on the Vaccinate California twitter feed, summarized here:

Are you seeing a list of draconian-seeming CDC “guidelines” for opening schools circulating? Are people commenting that CDC is out of touch, that it’s never going to work, that they’d rather homeschool than send their kids to school like that?

Guess what: as far as I can tell, it was generated precisely to undermine confidence in the CDC. It is actually a distortion of the real guidelines, which are a collection of suggestions for ways to mitigate risks of exposure in schools for schools to consider, depending on what the actual risk of exposure is, and how feasible each measure is for individual age groups or communities. The earliest version I’ve seen is even formatted on a blue background very similar to the color CDC does actually use on its website, making it look like an actually CDC summary.

None of this is required nor is it even a complete or contextual representation of the CDC document, which you can read here:

Personally, I’d feel better sending my own child to school if as many exposure risks are mitigated as feasible. Plexiglass dividers at group tables allowing kids to see and talk to each other, but not sneeze on each other? Sounds great! But some parents can’t envision how that would work, and it seems absurd or scary.

An example of how the list mischaracterizes the source document: masks and young kids.

The CDC document says — masks are one thing you can consider to mitigate risk of transmission, and it would be a challenge for young children, and you shouldn’t even consider it for children under two. The version circulation disingenuously reframed that to say masks should be required for all children over two.

Liz's Big COVID19 Testing Adventure! Follow Along.

On Monday, May 18th, 2020 I saw an announcement from San Mateo County and Project Baseline (PB) that free COVID19 testing was opening up in my county. So of course, being a good citizen-scientist, I signed up. Plus, I wanted testing.  Plus, I eventually wanted access to antibody testing. Yes, I had to give PB some personal medical information, but nothing that probably isn't already publicly available.  I mean, my height and weight are on my driver's license. Here are the states where Project Baseline testing is available:

Free COVID-19 testing is open in select states:
CA, CT, DE, ID, MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, PA and VA, and we are continuing to expand.

The first available convenient appointment was Wednesday, May 20th, at 11 pam in Daily City, which is about a 30 minute drive from my house. I arrived at the testing location (buildings that belong to Jefferson Union High School District) to an almost-empty parking lot. The first stop was a sheriff's officer, who asked me (through my rolled-up window) if I had an appointment. I indicated I did, so he waved me, still in my car, to the next stop, which was a gloved, gowned, and masked man who asked me to put my driver's license up to the window, so he could sort me into the correct line.

And this is where I discovered something, or had something brought to mind: I have a danged hard time understanding people when they are wearing masks and talking to me through my closed car window.  (To-do list: referral to audiologist please).

At the next station, two other masked, gowned, and gloved women looked at my driver's license through the car window, retrieved an already-labeled plastic envelope, and tucked it under the car's windshield wiper, and directed me to the correct line for a pair of tents (I wasn't allowed to take pictures or video.)  Then there was a little bit (less than 5 minutes) delay.   I think they had just opened up, and were working out the logistics of where to put directional and stop signs for optimal processing of cars.  Well, people in cars. So, some rearrangement of signage.

Finally, it was my turn.  I pulled up to see a woman in mask, face shield, and one of those disposable yellow gowns. She smiled, gestured theatrically (a nice touch) to a DON'T IDLE--TURN OFF YOUR CAR sign, and turned to the table to don a fresh pair of gloves. She retrieved the plastic envelope from the car windshield and put it on the table. Turning back to me with a vial and a swab, she then told me her first name, that she was a nurse, and that this test would be a self-administered swab. 

I already had a plastic bag open on my lap (in case it was a nasopharyngeal swab, and I gagged and vomited), so I was relieved.

I could hear her clearly through the closed window, so the engine noise might have been part of the problem. I think she asked me if I still wanted to continue with the testing -- I said yes, of course.  Then she described how to do the test.  I was to "take the swab, stick it up my nose until I hit resistance, twirl it around 10 times, and then repeat (10 twirls) on the other side."  I asked, "both nostrils?" and she said yes.  She also said the swab makes some people cough or sneeze; it I did to turn my head into my car.  Then she asked me to crack the window, and poked the vial in so I could grab it, and had me grab the swab from the sterile packaging.   It looked kind of like this.

A teeny little stalk and a fuzzy head, MUCH smaller than a Q-tip.  I did as instructed.  Scraping around the inside of my nose made my eyes water, but not profusely, and there was a residual unpleasant sensation that persisted for about 15 minutes.

Anyway, swab twirling on both sides accomplished, I opened the vial, dropped the swab in, fuzzy end first, and secured the top. I cracked my window again, handed the vial to the nurse, who placed it in the plastic specimen envelope. We wished each other good day, and I was on my way.

From turning off my engine to restarting was less than 10 minutes (I should have started my stopwatch....) and may have been less than 5 minutes. 

By the time I got back to my house, I'd had an email from Project Baseline:

So, by Tuesday May 26th  at the latest, I'll know if I am currently infected with SARS-COV-2, or not.  I predict not.  Check back in a couple of days, I'll update on the next step. 

Update #1:evidently there's some confusion about the test offered. Here's a visual

:

Judy Mikovits: Not a Reliable Source of Information on COVID19, Vaccines, Or Anything in Science

On April 14, 2020, Judy Mikovits and her co-author (or ghostwriter) Kent Heckenlively published a little-noticed book,Plague of Corruption: Restoring Faith in the Promise of Science, which was sponsored by the gruesomely named "Children’s Health Defense" -- Robert F. Kennedy jr's organization for attacking public health, specifically vaccines. It was a follow-up to their previous book, published in 2014: Plague: One Scientist's Intrepid Search for the Truth about Human Retroviruses and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS), Autism, and Other Diseases.
 

Mikovits sprang into prominence in the fall of 2009, claiming to find an infectious retrovirus, XMRV, in the blood of patients suffering Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. The fame turned to notoriety when the paper was retracted, Mikovits was fired, and then Mikovits was arrested for theft. Respectful Insolence has all the twists and turns in the Mikovits saga in detail

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19815723?fbclid=IwAR3JgfEIQ7IzpVGjV-16AOZ5uhMgUm-N7tDl_TmAn0XZqjsxrlqcO8yqoxQ

Failure to confirm XMRV/MLVs in the blood of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome: a multi-laboratory study.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3299483/

November 19, 2011:

Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2011/11/controversial-cfs-researcher-arrested-and-jailed?fbclid=IwAR0g6Pg5i6tWFErgksc1Mx7Z8CA4tz1Yx5kSnH_02OZVOxB89ePPAp4z2dY

Mikovits has been working with a filmmaker, Mikki Willis, whose previous output is about being "socially conscious". On May 4 or 5 (I have seen both dates) Willis released a 26 minute segment on his next film, "Plandemic", featuring an interview with Mikovits. The film was widely shared. The reaction from the science-literate segment of the population was not positive.

New to me as of May 8, 2020 10:30 pm, PDT: A transcript. Caveat: I haven't listened to the film with the transcript in hand. https://medium.com/@good_scribe/readable-transcript-plandemic-part-1-82ffdd72f5ab

Rebuttals to the Plandemic video

Note: I will be silently adding articles as I find them

Undated: Science Feedback: “Plandemic” vignette featuring anti-vaccination activist Judy Mikovits contains numerous false and unsupported claims about COVID-19

This video is the first in a series of vignettes preceding a movie titled “Plandemic”. First published on 5 May 2020, it quickly went viral on Facebook, with more than 2.2 million views on the platform to date. Produced by Mikki Willis, it features an interview with Judy Mikovits, former research director of the Whittemore Peterson Institute (WPI), a medical research institute at the University of Nevada, who was terminated in 2011 over questions about the integrity of her work. In the video, Mikovits makes numerous inaccurate and unsupported claims about the origins of the 2019 novel coronavirus, vaccines, and the treatment and prevention of COVID-19.

Undated: "Anastaisa Beaverhausen": Plandemic Documentary: The Hidden Agenda Behind Covid-19 #DEBUNKED!!

Undated: James F. Chaffee, Jr., an Emergency Management & Homeland Security expert, with Debunking “Plandemic”. It is an exhaustive, detailed, critical breakdown of all the false information contained within the documentary, with sources.

Judy Mikovits claims to not be anti-vaccine but she has published several anti-vaccine books (“Plague of Corruption” and “Plague”) and is a celebrity to the anti-vaccine movement. Even her publisher admits that they are an anti-vaccine publishing company. She is commonly featured on conspiracy websites like InfoWars and Natural News as being someone who believes vaccines cause autism. She has also co-authored books with “vaccines cause autism” advocate Kent Heckenlively and the foreward in her book “Plague of Corruption” is written by notorious anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

May 5, 2020: Jennifer L Kasten, MD, MSc, MSc, on her Facebook page. Dr. Kasten addresses each of Mikovits's claims, and shows why they are wrong. For example:

Re: vaccines contaminated with mouse viruses which have been dormant for years and are the real cause of COVID: there is no evidence for any of this whatsoever. For starters, vaccines for viruses are not developed in mice for mass production: some are grown in eggs / chick embryos, and others are grown in the Vero cells mentioned above. If any of Mikovits' claims were true, we might see monkey or chicken viral contaminants- but we don't.

May 6, 2020: Retraction Watch Who Is Judy Mikovits?

A hint of things to come also appeared in 2014, when Mikovits spoke at Autism One, an annual conference that typically features discussions of how vaccines cause autism and that was co-founded by her co-author Kent Heckenlively. Her talk: “Environmental Causes of Autism: Investigate If You Dare,” included a slide titled: “The best scientist in jail story since Galileo.”

She and Heckenlively published “Plague of Corruption: Restoring Faith in the Promise of Science” last month. She has taken to the airwaves to promote the book — and “Plandemic,” a video since removed from YouTube — and air her grievances against Fauci, which appear groundless

May 6, 2020: Orac at Respectful Insolence: Judy Mikovits in Plandemic: An antivax conspiracy theorist becomes a COVID-19 grifter

It is exactly why people are prone to conspiracy theories. A good conspiracy theory turns the believer into a hero, a warrior with secret knowledge that none of the other ignorant “sheeple” know, against powerful forces arrayed against him. A good conspiracy theory almost always has a part at the end in which the “people” (in this case, the people believing the conspiracy theory) “wake up” and see what is being “suppressed” by the powerful forces seeking to keep them ignorant. Conspiracy theories like this both make the believer feel special and brave for having secret knowledge and fighting to make it public, but also provide an explanation for bad things happening in the world. Yes, the conspiracy theory in Plandemic is utterly ridiculous to those of us who know science, medicine, and history, but most people don’t know the relevant science, medicine, and history. To them, it sounds plausible.

May 6, 2020: Derek Beres at Big Think: The anti-vaxx agenda of 'The Plandemic'

Below are seven instances that display how conspiracy theories are baked into "The Plandemic." To borrow from Mike Godwin, perhaps Beres' law is number eight: "As an online discussion about vaccines grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Bill Gates approaches 1." Because obviously, he's in there too.

May 6, 2020 Artin Massihi MD and his boss, Dan Erickson, object to clips from their video being used in Plandemic

May 6, 2020 Jeff Holiday on YouTube: Why The PLANDEMIC is Manufactured NONSENSE Mr. Holiday (see his Vaxxed rebuttals) plays the video, pausing to refute each inaccurate claim

May 6, 2020: Zubin Damania, AKA Zdogg MD, on YouTube: A Doctor Reacts To “Plandemic" and at MedPaage Today.

Really, you guys, like we don't have other things to worry about than a crazy attention-seeking person who is using this crisis to capitalize here? She's been at this for years. Go back. Go back. She's on Natural News and all the anti-vaccine sites. People say, "Oh, I'm just attacking her credibility and using ad hominems." Yeah, you should look at the credibility of the people who are trying to convince you that they're right when they don't have any science to prove it. Then you look at the credibility and you look at the people that they're associating with and they're citing, and you realize they are all non-credible lunatics.

May 6, 2020: Ross Grayson on Facebook

Ok, so the latest dumbass video that is going around that "PROVES EVERYTHING" (no it doesn't...) is "Plandemic". I will NOT link it here, but I will provide all the current information about why it is NOT valid. Starting with the background on the key interviewee, as summarized here:

May 6, 2020: Kat Montgomery, MD on Facebook This is a thorough and point-by-point debunking, including items I haven't seen elsewhere, such as:

She states that Ebola could not infect humans until it was engineered to do so in her laboratory. This is false. (Here is an article describing an outbreak of Ebola in 1976, long before Dr. Mikovits was conducting research: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27357339?fbclid=IwAR0YRnwI0r_qrSMPuCTrm6Ol4lNvzMIx782RhFMJgtfWGH1ubI6x4N-NQrk

May 6, 2020: Chad Finley at his Facebook page. Mr. Findley is a pharmaceutical lawyer, and goes into Mikovits's allegations in detail. This bit was one I hadn't seen explained so clearly before:

She was not under a “gag order.” She was under a temporary restraining order (“TRO”) and Protective Order. These are very common. The TRO was for her to preserve evidence, meaning she couldn’t destroy the lab notebooks or delete anything from her computer. Protective Orders are common in litigation and essentially say that anything produced to the other side in litigation is protected and cannot be publicly shared. In litigation sensitive information has to be shared, including unpublished data, trade secrets, pending business deals, etc. I don’t always agree with Protective Orders and I often wish I could share some of the horrible information we have gleaned from our lawsuits. But the bottom line is she wasn’t under a gag order. She could and did discuss the facts publicly. And for anything “confidential” she could still use them in Court filings.

May 6, 2020: Angela Moller, a microbiologist, at her Facebook page, went through Mikovits's claims and refuted them.

6. There is also no scientific merit to her statement that you can reinfect yourself by wearing a mask if you have COVID-19. You're already infected- it's replicating inside your body. Your immune system is dealing with it. Breathing your own air won't make it worse.

May 7, 2020: Steven Novella MD at Neurologica Skeptical of Plandemic

The video features Dr. Judy Mikovits, and is basically an interview with her. Unfortunately this is a slick piece of utter nonsense and conspiracy mongering. Mikovits has zero credibility in any of her claims, but they are combined with music and clips of videos to create the impression that there is some reality behind her outrageous claims. Let me focus on a few claims to show how low her and the filmmaker’s credibility are.

In her introduction the narrator states that she authors a study in Science that “sent shockwaves through the scientific community” because it showed that fetal and animal tissue in vaccines was causing an epidemic of chronic illness. This is straight up lie, but that is the narrative of this video – that she is a courageous fighter going against the establishment, which is killing people for profit and trying to destroy her for calling them out.

May 7, 2020: Karen Ernst at The Vaccine Blog: Plandemic? Nope.

Dr. Mikovits was never important enough to launch a large-scale conspiracy against. That’s no knock against her; it’s just that she’s not Martin Luther King, Jr. or Galileo. Before her research into Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, she was never the primary researcher on a topic. When her CFS research, claiming that viruses caused the syndrome, was retracted, ten other studies had failed to replicate her findings and scientists came to the conclusion that she only found the viruses present because she (likely unintentionally) contaminated her own samples. Finally, her arrest was not part of the conspiracy against her, but was instead due to her stealing intellectual property from her former employer after she was fired.

Even though these claims cover half the video, they do not touch on public health claims. So let’s answer some of those concerns about COVID19 pandemic vs. PLANdemic.

May 7, 2020: Reddit thread: Where can I find a good rebuttal to "Plandemic"?

May 7, 2020: Brandy Zadrozny and Ben Collins, NBC News: As '#Plandemic' goes viral, those targeted by discredited scientist's crusade warn of 'dangerous' claims. Initially pushed by anti-vaccination disinformation peddlers, the video was then promoted by minor celebrities.

Conspiracies crossing over to the mainstream can come with serious consequences, especially in relation to vaccines, according to David Broniatowski, an associate professor who studies weaponized health communication at George Washington University’s Institute for Data, Democracy and Politics.

He said the video of Mikovits was able to unite various groups that often traffic in health misinformation.

May 7, 2020: Jane Lytvynenko at Buzzfeed: The "Plandemic" Video Has Exploded Online — And It Is Filled With Falsehoods

“Now, as the fate of nations hang in the balance, Dr. Mikovits is naming names of those behind the plague of corruption that places all human life in danger,” says the narrator of the 30-minute video, in which Mikovits falsely claims that masks can make wearers sick, that sand from the beach can build up coronavirus immunity, and that as-yet-uninvented vaccines for the virus that has killed at least 75,000 people in the US are dangerous......Produced by a company called Elevate, "The Plandemic" deftly weaves together several strands of rumors that have circulated since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, doing so with high production values and a sheen of unearned authority.

May 7, 2020: Lisa Keys, PhD on her Facebook page<

Judy Mikovitz briefly worked at UNR as head of the Whittemore Peterson Institute while I was in graduate school there. She was one of my PhD committee members and our lab even worked on a joint project with her briefly. I will not go into all the details since this will already be a small novel, but I worked specifically on that “blockbuster” project. You might notice my name is not on that retracted paper. That is because I made the decision to STOP working on the project and made sure to not have my name associated with any of her work.

My time/experience with Judy involved her project working on Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, in which she believed she had identified a novel virus that caused the syndrome. Long story short, this was found to be a contamination in samples. However, she never accepted this and instead made sure the data to fit her hypothesis (and grant funding) and published anyway. The damage was only compounded by her own lack of ethics and soon multiple labs across the country noticed major discrepancies (such as data presented at one meeting showing a “positive result” then being published in a paper as a “negative” result).

May 7, 2020: Annie Reneau at Upworthy: That 'Plandemic' conspiracy video has been thoroughly debunked, people. Stop pushing it on us.

Bottom line: The video is bunk, but conspiracy theorists will keep on insisting that it's not. (Wake up! You're all sheep following the mainstream media! Experts who provide data backed up by multiple peer-reviewed studies can't be trusted! Individual doctors and scientists are more trustworthy than professional associations of thousands of doctors and scientists! Everyone is getting paid off, except these conspiracy theory pushers because I trust them because they say they're being persecuted by the science community for no reason and that sounds totally legit! And maybe the earth really IS flat—scientists have been wrong before!)

May 7, 2020: Allison Ruark at her Facebook page

I feel like all I really need to know about her is that she is a former researcher (yes, I mean former) who knowingly falsified data. In my mind this is a level of malpractice akin to a doctor knowingly performing the wrong surgery on a patient or a hedge fund manager knowingly misleading investors, and disqualifies her from being considered a credible researcher/scientist or speaking as an expert in the current pandemic. Also, for the record, she is NOT a well-known HIV researcher who has "revolutionized" the field, as Plandemic claims. I've been working in HIV/AIDS since the mid 2000s and have attended more HIV conferences than I can remember and have never heard of her. (Any HIV colleagues who want to chime in here, I'd be interested in your take.)

May 7, 2020: Jay Sizemore at Medium Plandemic:Debunked.Stop Sharing Propaganda and Misinformation

The person who made this movie is not exactly credible either. Mikki Willis has made quite a few questionable “documentaries.” In one of them, he concludes that a filmmaker named Daniel Northcott contracted leukemia and died due to finding a cursed Mayan bone…

Luckily for you, I’ve watched this 30 minute video so you don’t have to. Allow me to walk you through the claims it makes, and why they are blatantly incorrect and dangerous:

May 7, 2020 Daniel Funke at PolitiFact: Fact-checking ‘Plandemic’: A documentary full of false conspiracy theories about the coronavirus</p>

‘I was held in jail with no charges’

This is inaccurate spin about Mikovits’ past legal problems. She was charged in 2011 with stealing computer data and related property from her former employer.

The Whittemore Peterson Institute for Neuro-Immune Disease in Reno, Nevada, fired Mikovits in September 2011 as research director after her study linking a mouse retrovirus to chronic fatigue syndrome was discredited and retracted by Science, a prestigious peer-reviewed journal. In November 2011, the district attorney in Washoe County, Nevada, filed a criminal complaint against Mikovits for allegedly stealing computer data, notebooks and other property from the institute.

May 7, 2020: Yashika Sharma writing at Republic World: Fact Check: Is The 'Plandemic' Documentary True? Claims From The Video Debunked

Dr Judy Mikovits' 'anti-vaccination' agenda as per news sources

Judy claims that she is not an 'anti-vaxxer' i.e., a person who is against vaccination, when she was asked about it by Mikki Wilkis. While she claims that she is not such, many of her works are either co-authored by or also related to well-known anti-vaxxers. As per an article on a news site, the book that she has published, Plague of Corruption, is through Skyhorse Publishing, which is known for its anti-vaxxer agenda. The co-author of the book is Kent Heckenlively and the foreword is given by Robert F. Kennedy, who is a leader in the anti-vaxx movement.

May 7, 2020 Taylor Hatmaker at TechCrunch Platforms scramble as ‘Plandemic’ conspiracy video spreads misinformation like wildfire

Mikovits, who in the video states that she’s not opposed to vaccines, later goes on to make the claim that vaccines have killed millions of people. “The game is to prevent the therapies ‘til everyone is infected and push the vaccines, knowing that the flu vaccines increase the odds… of getting COVID-19,” Mikovits says, conspiratorially. At the same time, she suggests that doctors and health facilities are incentivized to overcount COVID-19 cases for the medicare payouts, an assertion that contradicts the expert consensus that coronavirus cases are likely still being meaningfully undercounted.

May 7, 2020 Sascha Primeau at Facebook: A Response to Plandemic: Lies and Deceptions. Ms. Primeau watched the video and debunks claims point by point.

· Now we jump to autism and another supposed blocking of a drug. Not sure how that relates to COVID-19? Also, didn’t know she researched autism. No publications by her about autism https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Mikovits%2C+JA+and+autism or suramin, a drug that she mentions. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=mikovits%2C+JA+and+suramin. She goes on to say that suramin has been taken away by the drug companies and they tried to get it, but they can’t. We don’t know who “they” is, as they never tell us. But, suramin is a treatment for African sleeping sickness and river blindness. So the drug exists. And there is apparently a small, randomized clinical trial ongoing at UC San Diego on suramin and treating the symptoms of autism. https://health.ucsd.edu/news/topics/suramin-autism/pages/default.aspx. But it is not FDA-approved, so people can’t just use it--that doesn’t mean that the drug companies “took it away” or are blocking it from being used. It means that it has to be shown to be safe and effective through clinical trials first, as all drugs must do. Not to mention the ethical issues surrounding the idea that autism is something that needs to be treated.

May 7, 2020. Stefan Richter MD on Facebook

-About MDs being incentivized to report coronavirus cases (from a prior comment of mine): This is a common conspiracy theory. People who claim physicians are over-reporting deaths typically point to the (true) fact that hospitals get paid a bonus for Covid patients, so there's a financial incentive for claiming that a person died from Covid. This has a few major holes in it:

1) Falsifying a medical record is illegal, hospitals get audited by CMS (Medicare) all the time to make sure the charts are accurate, and there are huge fines for lying.

2) Hospitals do get paid extra, but physicians don't, which is something people seem not to understand. This theory assumes that physicians are willing to put themselves at legal risk for the sake of a hospital (we almost always aren't).

3) There's a huge list of conditions that allow hospitals to get paid more for admissions - low sodium, malnutrition, diabetes, etc. We don't lie about these conditions either, because of 1 and 2 above.

4) The extra money for Covid patients is for medical notes, not death certificates. This is a subtle distinction to people outside the medical field, but putting a cause of death on a certificate is a separate process from documenting in a note, and falsifying those is ALSO illegal.

May 7, 2020, updated May 8, 2020 Will Sommer at the Daily Beast Discredited Doctor and Sham ‘Science’ Are the Stars of Viral Coronavirus Documentary ‘Plandemic’

YouTube banned the video on Wednesday, saying in a statement to The Daily Beast that it violated the site’s rules on COVID-19. On Thursday, Facebook followed suit and banned “Plandemic” over Mikovits’s claim that masks somehow spread the virus.

“Suggesting that wearing a mask can make you sick could lead to imminent harm, so we're removing the video,” a Facebook spokesperson said in a statement.

May 7, 2020 Ruth Reader at Fast Company: The ‘Plandemic’ video is a dangerous mashup of COVID-19 conspiracies

Joe Ondrak, a researcher at U.K.-based fact-checking organization Logically who has been following a variety of conspiracy theories related to COVID-19, says that fringe groups have been pushing Mikovits’s story for several weeks. “The plandemic hashtag has been around since last month,” he says.

May 7, 2020 Alex Kaplan at Media Matters: A coronavirus conspiracy theory film attacking vaccines has racked up million of views and engagements on YouTube and Facebook

A review by Media Matters found dozens of reuploads of the film in addition to Willis’ original upload on May 4 (including one from a major supporter of the QAnon conspiracy theory), resulting in more than 9 million views combined (which includes videos still up and those since taken down). The high view count was achieved despite YouTube continuing to take down reuploads of the video for violating its Community Guidelines. Some of the reuploads have received hundreds of thousands of views on their own.

May 7, 2020, Jennifer Brenton MD at Medium: The Misadventure of Plandemic and Dr. Judy Mikovits

My Verdict:

After extensive research, including pulling up the papers she mentions in the video …

1) I found Dr. Judy Mikovits’s biographical information in the film severely embellished,

2) I found Judy’s best-known research at worst fraudulent — at best incompetent — and

3) I found that evidence-based medicine does not support her warnings and claims about COVID-19.

May 7, 2020 "Sherlock Beaver" on Reddit: Plandemic Documentary debunked (with helpful timestamps).

READ THROUGH THE COMMENTS FIRST so many of your questions have already been addressed and several contemporaries of Dr. Mikovits' at UNR (where WPI is) have contributed their own experience, as have other great investigators who caught even more misinformation in this video than I address here. The comments here are where there is more gold. Thank you.

May 8, 2020 Alex Mahadevan at Poynter: Fact-checking ‘Plandemic,’ a documentary full of false conspiracy theories about the coronavirus

The video is a deep dive into conspiracy theories about COVID-19, public health and the pharmaceutical industry. It discusses Dr. Anthony Fauci’s efforts to combat the AIDS epidemic during the 1980s and Bill Gates’ support of vaccination efforts around the world.

May 7, 2020 Jessie Hawkins, PhD and Christy Hires, MPH at Franklin School of Integrative Health Sciences. This is a detailed, 3-part, point-by-point rebuttal of the claims made in the film. Fact-Checking "Plandemic" [Part 1]

Finally, keep in mind that the film bounces around on a timeline, often convoluting different phases of her career. It begins by discussing her work pre-PhD in the 80s, then leaps to her work in the 2000s. If we take this and put it back into a timeline perspective, we see that she worked as a lab tech in the 80s, achieved a PhD in the early 90s, her career ended in 2001, and she moved to California. She was working as a bartender in 2006 when she was recruited for the work related to her arrest. We don't typically find someone working in a completely unrelated career if they were thriving as one of the most accomplished individuals in their first career.

May 7, 2020 Jessie Hawkins, PhD and Christy Hires, MPH at Franklin School of Integrative Health Sciences: Fact-Checking "Plandemic" [Part 2]

[Judy Mikovits claims] 23. “There is no vaccine currently on the schedule for any RNA virus that works”

Oh. This is awkward. I’d like to introduce you to the flu, measles, polio, and Hep A, all of which are RNA viruses with vaccines.

May 7, 2020 Jessie Hawkins, PhD and Christy Hires, MPH at Franklin School of Integrative Health Sciences: Fact-Checking "Plandemic" [Part 3]

50a. “...so if you’ve ever had a flu vaccine, you were injected with coronaviruses”

Aside from this being immediately deemed false because its premise is false (see above), the implication is that the flu vaccine injects humans with all viruses contained in dogs. This is an outlandish distortion of the role of animal cells in vaccine production.

To begin, there are different types of flu vaccine; they can’t all be grouped together. Most influenza viruses for vaccines are grown in hen’s eggs. Only a few come from canine cell lines. Furthermore, the use of a cell line is not at all the same as injecting someone with the cell lines. Nobody is being injected with coronaviruses. Finally, coronaviruses are not interchangeable; canine viruses are completely unrelated to COVID-19.

May 7, 2020 Jessica McBride at Heavy: ‘Plandemic’ Movie: Fact-Checking the New COVID-19 Video

Claim: An Activist Named Larry Kramer Harshly Criticized Fauci for His Handling of HIV/AIDS

What the Plandemic video leaves out? The Times says that Kramer and Fauci “developed a grudging friendship, and Dr. Fauci helped get Mr. Kramer into a lifesaving experimental drug trial after Mr. Kramer had a liver transplant.”

Kramer told the Times of Fauci: “We are friends again. I’m feeling sorry for how he’s being treated. I emailed him this, but his one line answer was, ‘Hunker down.’” In addition, the New Yorker notes that Fauci “did not control the drug-approval process” for HIV/AIDS but does note “he was seen as a barrier to opening access to clinical trials.”....

Thus, the Plandemic video highlights the worst information regarding Fauci while omitting mitigating and contextual points.

May 8, 2020: Tara Haelle at Forbes: Why It’s Important To Push Back On ‘Plandemic’—And How To Do It

The video looks, sounds and feels like a documentary even though it isn’t

Plandemic is part of a disturbingly successful trend in which deep-pocketed purveyors of pseudoscience produce slick, professional videos as credible-appearing documentaries. The lighting, narrative structure, the pacing, use of imagery, camera angles, editing techniques—these are all common documentary filmmaking conventions that we’ve come to associate with factual information.

The people producing this video know what they’re doing, and they’re very good at it. On a subconscious level, no matter what words are being said, this video feels factual simply because of how it was produced. It’s intentionally manipulative. It’s a textbook example of effective propaganda. (That’s the line. Next is the sinker.)

May 8, 2020 Beth Skwarecki at Lifehacker: If You Found That ‘Plandemic’ Video Convincing, Read This Too</p>

The biggest truth that I think this video touches on is that we, the public, have heard confusing and conflicting messages about this pandemic. We are living through something truly unprecedented, and a lot of things about it don’t make sense. That’s unavoidable—it’s truly a new thing on this earth. But it also makes us long for certainty, and no one can be blamed for wanting to seek out clear messages.</p

But as we’ve discussed here before, the real experts discuss the uncertainty of the facts about our situation. Nobody alive today can possibly have 100% of the answers, so we should remain skeptical of anybody who says they can explain it all.

May 8, 2020: Martin Enserink and Jon Cohen at Science: Fact-checking Judy Mikovits, the controversial virologist attacking Anthony Fauci in a viral conspiracy video

Mikovits also accuses Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a prominent member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, of being responsible for the deaths of millions during the early years of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. The video claims Mikovits was part of the team that discovered HIV, revolutionized HIV treatment, and was jailed without charges for her scientific positions.

Science fact-checked the video. None of these claims are true. The video is an excerpt from a forthcoming movie Plandemic, which promises to “expose the scientific and political elite who run the scam that is our global health system.” YouTube, Facebook, and other platforms have taken down the video because of inaccuracies. It keeps resurfacing, including on the Plandemic website, which, in “an effort to bypass the gatekeepers of free speech,” invites people to download the video and repost it.

May 8, 2020 Scott Neuman at NPR: Seen 'Plandemic'? We Take A Close Look At The Viral Conspiracy Video's Claims

In an article originally published in 2018, Snopes reported on a claim by Mikovits that Fauci sent an email that "threatened her with arrest if she visited the National Institutes of Health to participate in a study to validate her chronic fatigue research."

"I have no idea what she is talking about. I can categorically state that I have never sent such an e-mail," Fauci told the fact-checking website. "I would never make such a statement in an e-mail that anyone 'would be immediately arrested' if they stepped foot on NIH property."

May 8, 2020 Angelo Fichera, Saranac Hale Spencer, D'Angelo Gore, Lori Robertson and Eugene Kiely at FactCheck: The Falsehoods of the ‘Plandemic’ Video

In the sections below, we break down eight of the false, misleading and unfounded claims aired in “Plandemic."

Unfounded Attacks on Fauci

Scientists: Novel Coronavirus Not ‘Manipulated’

Misleading Claim on Wuhan Lab Funding

Flu Vaccines Don’t Contain Coronaviruses

No Evidence Flu Shot Increases Risk of COVID-19

Hydroxychloroquine: Unproven COVID-19 Therapy

Wrong Message on Masks

False Suggestion About Ebola

May 8,2020 Anna Merlan at Vice: 'Plandemic' Is Dangerous, Viral Nonsense. A pseudo-documentary full of outrageous, verifiably false claims is still going viral, despite being repeatedly removed from YouTube and Facebook.

The volume of nonsense and revisionist history in the clip is truly, profoundly exhausting—which makes its virality depressing. And while the claims made in the video are incoherent, the underlying point is pretty clear: The fear and panic over COVID-19 are part of a larger plot of oppression and enslavement, with Fauci at its head. It’s classic conspiracy theorizing, wrapped in a slightly contemporary packaging.

May 8, 2020 Ashley Alker MD on Twitter Plandemic Rebuttal

May 8,2020: Greg Fish at Rantt Media: Debunking “Plandemic,” The Coronavirus Conspiracy Video. The viral conspiracy video "Plandemic" spreads anti-vaccine lies, false coronavirus claims, smears Dr. Fauci, and fabricates Dr. Judy Mikovits' record.

One of their latest and most talked about efforts is the very professionally produced conspiracy series Plandemic, which takes all the greatest hits of the anti-vaccine movement and dials them to eleven before ripping the knob off in invoking COVID-19 because that’s the crisis on which all of us are currently focused. Its main allegation? That the pandemic which has us sheltering in place is a bioweapon designed to scare us into getting vaccinated by amoral billionaires using vaccines as a way to keep us sick and dependent on the evils of science-based medicine.

In short, it’s the anti-vaxxer version of screaming fire in a crowded theater, blocking the exits, then saying “now that I’ve got your attention, you have to look at my pamphlet” with references to the coronavirus hastily scribbled in at the margins. The minute you strip away the tie in to the hottest disease of the year, Plandemic’s allegations are just well worn and long-debunked tropes, and its creator, Mikki Willis, is downright beaming with pride that it’s been removed from Facebook and YouTube for spreading dangerous misinformation, claiming that the very sinister elites trying to vaccinate us into sickness are just scared their nefarious plots are being exposed.

p>May 8, 2020 N'dea Yancey-Bragg and Joel Shannon at USA Today: Claim in viral 'Plandemic' video 'could lead to imminent harm,' Facebook says

'Plandemic' is a viral video spreading misinformation</>

USA TODAY has rated the claim that face masks weaken the immune system as false.

Wearing a face mask can lessen the spread of the coronavirus from a sick person to a healthy individual, according the The Mayo Clinic. Masks are also suggested for people caring for someone with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. Risks associated with wearing face masks only apply to a select few in the general population.

May 8, 2020, Jason Puckett (TEGNA), David Tregde, and Terry Spry Jr. at VERIFY: The 'Plandemic' documentary is full of misinformation Much of the information in the video that spread like wildfire on social media was presented without evidence or was demonstrably false.

After thoroughly digging into the video, the VERIFY team is labeling “Plandemic” as disinformation.

It’s filled with false information presented by sources that aren't credible, and trying to push a narrative.Let’s break it down.

May 8, 2020 Katherine Mac at her Facebook page: a detailed, point-by-point rebuttal.

• They show Nepute again at the end and of course he says "And I’m blown away why there are not more doctors like me talking about this all over the place. "

KM: He literally not a medical doctor. He's a chiropractor trying to sell his woo nutritional pack from his wellness center.

May 9, 2020 Marshall Allen at ProPublica: I’m an Investigative Journalist. These Are the Questions I Asked About the Viral “Plandemic” Video.

Does the Work Claim Some Secret Knowledge?

Plandemic calls itself a documentary that reveals “the hidden agenda behind COVID-19." We are in the midst of a global pandemic where few people in the world can figure out what is happening or the right way to respond, let alone agendas. We have almost every journalist in the country writing about this. And if the truth about a conspiracy is out there, many people have an incentive to share it. But Plandemic would like us to think it's presenting some exclusive bit of secret knowledge that is going to get at the real story. That's not likely.

Plus, to be honest, there were so many conspiratorial details stacked on top of each other in the film I couldn't keep them straight. When I spoke to Willis I told him I was having a hard time understanding his point. Then I took a stab at what I thought was the main thrust of his argument. “Are you saying that powerful people planned the pandemic and made it happen so they could get rich by making everyone get vaccines?" I asked.

It turns out Willis isn't sure either. “We're in the exploratory phase," he told me. “I don't know, to be clear, if it's an intentional or naturally occurring situation. I have no idea."

Then he went on to say that the pandemic is being politicized and used to take away our civil liberties and leverage other political policies. “Certain forces" have latched onto the situation, he said. “It's too fishy."

He had me at, “I have no idea." That sums it up. This is a vast pandemic and massive catastrophe. Our country wasn't prepared for it, and the response by our top leaders has been disjointed. We're restricted to our homes. Many people have lost their jobs and some are afraid or sick or dying. That makes us vulnerable to exploitation by people who will present inaccurate or intellectually dishonest information that promises to tell us the truth.

May 9, 2020 Joe Pinsker at The Atlantic: If Someone Shares the ‘Plandemic’ Video, How Should You Respond? Experts provide scripts to help you push back as effectively as possible.

The experts I reached out to also had plenty of suggestions for what not to do in these situations: Don’t lecture someone, don’t get exasperated, don’t insult them, and don’t try to refute specific falsehoods. “It is likely ineffective to directly argue with someone on the merits of the documentary’s claims,” Piltch-Loeb said.

May 9, 2020 Davey Alba at the New York Times: Virus Conspiracists Elevate a New Champion. A video showcasing baseless arguments by Dr. Judy Mikovits, including attacks on Dr. Anthony Fauci, has been viewed more than eight million times in the past week.

Dr. Peter J. Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said [Judy Mikovits's] rise illustrated how the anti-vaccination movement had “taken a new ominous twist” with the coronavirus.

“They’ve now aligned themselves with far-right groups,” Dr. Hotez said, “and their weapons of choice are YouTube, Facebook and Amazon.”

May 10, 2020: Mike Varshavski MD on YouTube: Doctor Fact-Checks PLANDEMIC Conspiracy . Dr. Varshavski pays particular attention to Mikovits's AIDS claims, and the Bayh-Dole Act.

May 10, 2020 Mackenzie Zlatos at Front Page Alive: The ten red flags from the viral ‘Plandemic’ interview.

4. Hydroxychloroquine is not a proven cure

Mikovits claimed that the malaria treatment, touted by the Trump campaign as a possible cure for COVID-19, is effective in treating the virus. The one problem with this statement: it’s not.

May 10, 2020 Skeptical Raptor at Skeptical Raptor: Judy Mikovits – another false authority on COVID-19 and vaccines

Judy Mikovits is not an authority on COVID-19

So let’s review.

1. She spent 12 years as a lab tech, losing several jobs along the way.
2. She did get a Ph.D. in which she studied HIV, but apparently she used none of that knowledge in her later years (a typical issue with false authorities). And, as far as I can tell, her Ph.D. work did not lead to a single published paper as first or last author (the only ones that matter)..
3. In fact, up until her retracted work with XMRV and CFS, she published 10 papers, none of which included her as the primary author..
4. She worked as a bartender at a yacht club in Ventura, CA before getting her the position at WPI..
5. She published a much-criticized and eventually retracted paper. .
6. hSe was arrested for stealing from WPI..
7. In other words, she has no experience in vaccine development, no experience in coronaviruses, no experience in epidemiology and public health, and no experience publishing respected primary research. .

May 12,2020: Brooklyn Neustaeter at CVTNews dot ca Truth Tracker: 'Plandemic' video full of false conspiracy theories about COVID-19</p>

MASKS DO NOT 'ACTIVATE' THE VIRUS

In the video, Mikovits alleges that wearing a face mask can "activate" the coronavirus. She says that people who wear masks are becoming sick from their own "reactivated coronavirus expressions." There is no evidence to support this.

According to health professionals, wearing a non-medical face mask may prevent the spread of the coronavirus; it does not make people more susceptible to it. Public health officials have recommended that people wear homemade face masks when they’re out in public, especially when physical distancing may be difficult, such as in grocery stores or on public transit. This is to protect others around the wearer because there is evidence the virus can be spread among asymptomatic individuals, or those who don't have any symptoms of COVID-19.

May 12, 2020 Helen Petousis Harris at Diplomatic Immunity: Plandemic – effective fact-free marketing

The first words uttered in this video can be proven not true.

“Dr Judy Mikovits has been called one of the most accomplished scientists of her generation.”

Judy Mikovits cannot be one of the accomplished scientists of her generation (baby boomers). A quick google scholar search shows she is not an active scientist and has not been practicing for years. Her most notable publication was retracted (these things happen but in this case it got messy, see links below). So here, in the first sentence of the narrative, chimes the first warning bell.

May 12, 2020 Stephan Lewandowsky, John Cook, Ullrich Ecker, and Sander van der Linden at Cranky Uncle: Plandemic and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

The video Plandemic is a textbook example of conspiratorial thinking. And so it’s instructive looking at examples from this video.. We put together a video examining the traits of conspiratorial thinking found in Plandemic. The purpose of our video is to help build our resilience so we’re not misled by other conspiracy theories.

Readers may also with to download the short manual, "How to Spot COVID19 Conspiracy Theories

May 16, 2020: Rebecca Corey at Yahoo News: Debunking the coronavirus conspiracies in viral ‘Plandemic’ video. Corey interviews Dara Kass MD and Michael Saag MD

“If we see things that are actually not only going to mislead people, but really harm them, it’s our obligation to speak up and say, ‘That’s not correct,’” Saag tells Yahoo News.

"Plandemic” is just one of many videos spouting baseless claims that we are likely to encounter during the coronavirus pandemic, Saag and Kass say. Kass says their effect is “to distract people from whatever we’re trying to tell them that may be uncomfortable, or difficult, or hard work, or may take longer than they want to hear it.”

May 21, 2020, Benjamin Radford at Center for Inquiry. ‘Plandemic’ Asks Questions—But Won’t Answer Them

The video repeatedly emphasizes the importance of “considering different points of view” and asking questions, yet offers no other points of view that contradict or undermine Mikovits. Plandemic claims the medical community has a set narrative that refuses to answer opposing voices—and instead offers its own set narrative that refuses to answer opposing voices. Plandemic made many claims, most of which have been widely debunked. We have to wonder: Where are their responses? Why are they suddenly so quiet? Why are they afraid to answer questions? What do they have to hide?

How many debunkings as of 6 pm PST (USA) Friday May 8, 2020? 28

How many debunkings as of 11:00 am PST (USA) Saturday May 9, 2020? 39

How many debunkings as of 10:00 pm PST (USA) Saturday May 9, 2020? 45

As I worked on compiling this list, I was thinking again and again of the propaganda technique known as firehosing.

Lucky Tran on fire hosing:

Firehosing relies on pushing out as many lies as possible as frequently as possible. That’s typical for propaganda, but the aspect that makes firehosing a unique strategy is that it doesn’t require the propagandist to make the lies believable. That seems counterintuitive, but as Carlos Maza of Vox explains, firehosing is effective because its goal isn’t to persuade. It’s to rob facts of their power.

Steven Novella MD on firehosing:

But this end of the spectrum also blends into the more sinister end, where firehosing is used as a deliberate propaganda strategy.

At this end the firehoser knows what they are doing. They are not intellectually lazy, they are intellectually dishonest. They know they are spouting falsehoods, or are indifferent to their truth status. The purpose of their communication is not to persuade, but to confuse and befuddle, even to distract. Go ahead, deal with all these lies. I can pile them on endlessly. While you’re busy doing that, I will make my emotional and ideological appeals. I will build a compelling narrative, and you will lose before you even realize you are playing the wrong game.

It’s diabolical, and unfortunately it works. But it’s even worse than that. It works similarly to a virus that takes out the immune system of the host. The Guardian puts it well when they write that of the greater purpose:

It’s to rob facts of their power. Firehosing inundates us with so many wild opinions that it becomes exhausting to continually disprove them. In this scenario, reality is reduced to positioning and who can sell their position best.

We can see this strategy at work. In American politics it seems the overall strategy recently is to just manufacture your alternate reality, the actual facts and logic be damned. Both sides may think they have the real facts, and the other side is hopelessly misinformed. (I always have to point out, I am not suggesting symmetry here, but both sides certainly believe this.) There is no engaging honestly without a common set of shared facts.

About Those Urgent Care Doctors in Bakersfield: They're Wrong. Here's Why.

Important update 90 minutes after this first posted at : a strongly condemning press release from both the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM). This is a big deal; such professional guilds/bodies don't do this

About those two doctors in Bakersfield, California, Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi. They released a video Wednesday April 22, 2020, claiming that their data from "early testing" showed that it was time to start reopening California, and that "sheltering in place" could weaken the immune system. (I'm not linking to the video; it's easy to find on YouTube.).

The very short critique

1. They are not epidemiolpgists or infectious disease experts. I believe only Massihi is board certified. They lack the specialized training to analyze their test results (see discussion below).
2. They own a chain of urgent care centers (Accelerated Urgent Care) that are reported to be struggling financially because of the shut down.
3. They don't identify which of the current tests they used. Some of the tests are more reliable than others, and all tests have significant error ranges.
4. Erickson and Massihi did not test a random sample of the population, but tested sick people who presented to their clinics. This renders their analysis invalid.
5. The calculations they used were highly inaccurate. "Erickson compared Norway to Sweden and did the math wrong. Norway has 37 deaths per million so far and Sweden has 253 per million so far. Sweden also has the steepest curve and is 7th in the world in deaths per.million of their population and rising the fastest in percentage"
6. There is no evidence "sheltering in place" weakens the immune system.There are hundreds of millions of organisms to challenge the immune system, even in the cleanest house

Local infectious disease expert Navin Amin,critiqued their analysis on April 23.

On April 25,  Jennifer Kasten, MD, a pathologist with degrees in infectious disease epidemiology, mathematical modeling of epidemics, and fieldwork in epidemic control, published an in-depth critique of Drs. Erickson and Massihion on Facebook

If Dr. Kasten's analysis is too long for you to read, here is my summary:

They made two epidemiology/immunology claims:

1. That based on their testing, 6.5% of the entire Central Valley is positive.
2. Prolonged social distancing damages the immune system, and we are all becoming weaker for staying at home.

Both of their claims are false.

Also on April 25, on Twitter Professor of Public Policy and Sociology Richard M. Carpiano remarked

Got #COVID19 findings? Report them as scientists do? Nah! Go for press hype, public view, evid. be damned!

• hold press conference at urgent care clinic you own
• wear scrubs (looks expert-y)
• get news to lead w/your creds bf your epid. 101 weak finding

Feel free to copy and paste the above as needed. Now I'm going to get (as was my wont) a lot more detailed critiques. A record, if you will, of reactions. It's long, and detailed, and may not be of interest to you, but there should be a record.

Carl T. Bergstrom started a twitter thread the morning of April 26. His twitter bio reads:

Prof. Biol. @UW. Information flow in biology, society, & science. I love crows and ravens. he/him Book *Calling Bullshit* coming Aug 4th.

I am doing this as a text file, rather than something like Thread Reader App, because... well, I lost a lot of valuable content when Storify shuttered. You can read the originals in the Twitter link above.

Dr. Bergstom's Tweet Thread

Unfortunately the misleading claims of those two doctors in Bakersfield keep making the rounds, so I want to very briefly address the problem with what they are saying.

I won't get into their possible motives, past political activity, etc.

What they did was simple: they looked at the fraction of patients who tested positive for #COVID19 at the clinics they own. They found 340 out of 5213 tests were postive, about 6.6%

Then they assume the same fraction of the whole population are infected.

From there, they scale up to the state level and claim 12% incidence statewide. The news story says it is using the same calculation, but it can't be—how did they get from 6.6% to 12%? Perhaps they estimating infected *ever* versus infected *currently*. It's not clear.

Using that 12% infected figure, and a known 1400 deaths in California, they assume 1400 out of 4.7 million have died. That gives them an infection fatality rate of 0.03%. That is, they think that if 10,000 are infected, 3 will die on average. .

The problem with this approach is that during a pandemic, the people who come into an urgent care clinic are not a random sample of the population.

A large fraction of them are coming in precisely because they suspect that they have the disease.

This generates sampling bias.

Estimating that fraction infected from patients at an urgent care facility is a bit like estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court.

It's not a random sample, and it gives a highly biased estimate.

Moreover the estimate does not pass even a basic plausibility check.

In New York City, 12,067 people are known to have died from the virus, out of a population of 8.4 million.

This is a rate of 0.14% of all people. Not just infected people. All people.

That gives us a lower bound on the death rate in New York. Not an estimate, a lower bound.

The death rate for infected people is obviously higher than 0.14%, because not everyone in New York has been infected.

And yet that 0.14% lower bound is nearly *five times as high* as the 0.03% that the Bakerfield duo are claiming. They've used absurd methodology to arrive at an implausible number.

If the pandemic were not so severely politicized, this would be a non-issue from the start.

. . /fin



 . 


This is a much longer, detailed critique, with timestamps

From a physician, reposted by his friend Michael Falk MD on Monday, April 27

OK, since this video by Drs. Erickson and Massihi has been making the rounds on facebook, I feel like I need to respond. Now first of all, I actually agree with the basic premise that this is not as dangerous as we first thought and we should probably move to open. However they make many false and misleading claims so I feel like I need to respond.

This video is I believe making the rounds because it sounds internally logical and has many facts that are either deliberately or inadvertantly misinterpreted and about 95% of the things they are saying are true and then there's the 5% that's the gotcha.

So let's go through it point by point.

1. at around the 3 minute mark, he says that we should quarantine the people that are sick and not the people that are well. ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. However in order to quarantine the sick and not the well, you need to know who is sick and who is well. That's the problem with Covid-19 is that unlike measles or most other infectious diseases, people can spread the disease when they are asymptomatic so how do you know who needs to be quarantined and who doesn't? Ideally, you do what South Korea did and have lots of testing available and you test everyone and then you trace all their contacts and test them and now you know who has the virus and who doesn't and you quarantine those who have the virus and let the others go about their business. We did not have testing and we still do not have enough testing to test everyone. so what do you do when you don't know who has the virus? yeah, you quarantine everyone.

2. around the 4 minute mark, they say that they had 340 out of 5213 tests positive (6.5%). Then they talk about how 12% of the tests in california were positive and 39% of the tests in new york were positive. Then they say that Ca has 39 million people and 12% of them being positive means 4.5 million people have covid-19. THIS IS THE SINGLE GREATEST PROBLEM WITH THIS VIDEO.

Either they are being purposely misleading or they completely forgot statistics 101. They are confusing testing within a high pretest probability cohort with a random sample of the population that can be extrapolated to the general population. Let me explain. Until now, the way covid testing worked was that there were so few tests that we only tested people that we were pretty sure had the disease. And even if we were pretty sure they had the disease, if they had mild symptoms, we didn't test them. Therefore the tested samples will have a much higher rate of positivity than the general population.

This kind of thought process would be like I run an emergency room and tonight 10% of the people have a stroke. Then I extrapolate that to mean that 10% of the world is having a stroke tonight. That's obviously ludicrous. The sample of people coming to the ER is not representative of the entire population.

There are currently random testing studies being done to look at prevalence in the general population and I've discussed them and they think the prevalence is about 2-3 percent. These are early studies and still should not be used to extrapolate nationwide and have problems dealing with bayesian probability and testing specificity but are FAR FAR better than using testing data in a hospital setting to the population. That's just plain wrong.

He keeps saying he's following the science and using data. The problem is that he doesn't understand data and is misinterpreting it and is NOT following the science.

3. Around 13 minutes, they discuss Norway and Sweden. Sweden has 1,765 deaths. Norway has 182 deaths. He claims this is statistically insignificant. I have no idea what statistical test he used and I'm pretty sure he has no idea either because he didn't do one. The correct test to do would be a chi squared test with Yates correction. That gives a P value of <0.0001. That's about as statistically significant as it gets! In fact, you don't even need to do a statistical test on it. Sweden has 10 times the deaths as Norway. No one looks at a ten fold increase and says "BAH, that's nothing!"

4. Around 16 minutes he talks about the downsides of the shutdown. These are valid points there are DEFINITELY downsides.

5. Around 18 he starts talking about the immune system. He talks about how the immune system needs to be exposed to pathogens to develop. ABSOLUTELY TRUE. But then he takes immunological development in a child to adults in quarantine. NOT TRUE. Unless you live inside a bubble, your home and your yard have TRILLIONS of pathogens. No amount of lysol and handwashing is going to remove pathogens that you breathe in and touch all the time. Your own mouth has billions of microbes. Your skin is teeming with microbes. Fungal spores and viruses in the air. Your immune system will 100% not be weaker by being at home. Your immune system might get weaker if you stay home, don't exercise and eat candy all day but the fact of being home in an of it self will not harm your immune system.

6. Around 26 minutes he says academics and reality are two different things. This appeals to some people but in this case, they need to go back to academics to learn basic statistics.

7. Around 27 minutes he talks about all the fomites you bring from costco to your house and totally contradicts his own point from 18 minutes (#5)

8. Around 28 he talks about the logical inconsistency for being able to go to costco but not to work or church. Because you're going to be interacting with people at either place. YES, ABSOLUTELY TRUE. Ideally, people should go nowhere. But we do need to eat and there's no other mechanism available to get food so they are letting what they consider "essential" continue. Now what's considered essential is up for debate since they've said liquor stores are essential which I personally disagree with but there is a logic in that.

9. Around 30, he claims doctors are being pressured to add covid to the diagnosis. That is definitely not happening at Loma Linda University or any other institution that I've spoken to.

10. Around the same time he talks about how covid doesn't kill people, their preexisting condition kills them. well we know for a fact that young healthy people have died. not often and definitely having poor health before makes you more likely to succumb.

11. Around 33. they said widespread testing is needed to open the economy. YUP. THAT'S WHAT EVERYONE IS SAYING.

12. Around 34, he says that covid and flu kill people. Completely contradicting himself from 3 minutes ago.

13. Around 37 he talks about quarantining the sick. YES, but no one knows who is infected or not right now and THAT is the biggest problem.

14. Around 41 minutes, they said that no one does in house testing. Actually every major hospital does in house testing. Loma Linda, USC, UCLA, Stanford, U of Washington, etc.

15. Around 45 minutes he talks about staying home if you have symptoms. Yes, but maybe he's not aware that people are infectious and shedding virus when they have no symptoms and a significant proportion NEVER get symptoms but are still spreading the virus. That's what makes covid-19 harder to get a handle on. If people didn't shed virus until AFTER they had symptoms it would be very easy. Just tell everyone to stay home once they get symptoms. problem solved. Unfortunately, this one transmits before symptoms are evident.

16. Around 47 they claim the virus will mutate and become less and less virulent. There is absolutely zero basis for that claim. None WHATSOEVER. It's possible that it will mutate and become less virulent but then that virus will be out-competed by the parental strain that is more virulent. It's also possible that it will mutate and become MORE virulent. There is no basis for which to say that a virus will mutate and become less virulent.

17. Around 48 minutes, they make a claim saying that academics haven't seen a patient in 20 years. That's not how academic medicine works. I see patients every day. And I see the patients that are too complex for the doctors in the community to deal with.

18. Around 50 minutes, they claim that wearing masks and gloves reduces your bacterial flora. You get your bacterial flora from the food you eat, the clothes you wear, the air you breathe. Wearing masks and gloves have minimal impact on that especially since most people take those things off once they get home.

They also claim that they spoke to Kern County public health commissioner who agrees with them. That's not true either.

Source: https://www.theblaze.com/news/doctor-dan-erickson-coronavirus-reopen

(Updated April 28, 2020, at 5:21 pm  to add this anonymous account.  I can't reveal specifics, but it is from a medical person in the Central Valley. )

I am publishing this at 6:48 pm, April 27, 2020. I will add content as I find it, and will specifically state when content is added. I may also make sources more visible (making visible the URLs hidden in links). All errors are my own. In the future, updates will be noted at the bottom of the post

Articles and other media critical of Drs. Erickson and Messihi's messages

April 27, 2020: The announcemnt

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Messihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

April 26, 2020 I posted a shorter version of this post to my wall on Facebook. It was shared a LOT which was heartening.

April 27, 2020 Barbara Feder Ostrov at Cal Matters: Cue the debunking: Two Bakersfield doctors go viral with dubious COVID test conclusions

But already the Bakersfield doctors — who tout their support of President Donald Trump and refuse to wear masks in public — had become heroes on social platforms and conservative media outlets, with some commenters calling them “brave.” Others who support continuing to shelter-in-place described the doctors as self-promoters whose chain of urgent care centers would benefit from reopening. Non-COVID medical visits have plummeted during the pandemic, endangering the practices of many doctors.

“As struggling business owners, their economic frustration is understandable. But it can’t be mistaken for science. People trust doctors,” Michigan emergency room doctor Rob Davidson wrote on Twitter. “When they tell Fox viewers to ignore recommendations from real experts, many will believe them…The impact of rejecting science-proven recommendations in exchange for these erroneous ideas would overwhelm health systems and cost lives. While re-opening the economy might be good for their Urgent Care Centers (sic), it would kill medical personnel on the actual front lines.”

April 27, 2020 Ari Allyn-Feuer at The Prepared Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong

The video, which is better browsed in transcript form, is a catalog of errors that range from the blatantly wrong to the subtly misleading. But the central and most inexcusable flaw of the entire video is this. Erickson confuses test positivity rates (i.e., the percentage of positive PCR tests among a group of people who were actually able to get tested for COVID-19) with community attack rates  (i.e., the percentage of people in a whole population who have had COVID-19).

April 28, 2020: From David Gorski MD at Respectful Insolence: Dr. Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi: Promoting dangerously bogus pseudo-epidemiology about COVID-19

There’s a pandemic of more than just COVID-19 right now. There’s also a pandemic of pseudoscience, misinformation, disinformation, and just plain bad science. There’s also a pandemic of armchair epidemiologists confidently spouting off about infection rates and case fatality rates, people who self-assuredly say, “I’m not an epidemiologist or infectious disease expert, but…” and then proceed to make opine about the incidence, prevalence, and treatment as though they were experts. 

April 29, 2020 From FallacyMan at Logic of Science blog: Shoddy statistics and false claims: Dr. Erickson dangerously misled the public on coronavirus</p>

Their entire argument rests on the notion that the mortality rate from COVID is actually very low, even less than 0.1% (roughly the typical mortality rate from the flu). Actual studies have found that the mortality rate varies from 3.6% (Baud et al. 2020) to 1.4% (Wu et al. 2020). I have yet to see an estimate based on confirmed cases that was anywhere near the number these emergency doctors came up with (see Note 3). So how did they get such a low number? Easy: they’re bad at statistics.

Articles and other media supporting or amplifying Drs. Erickson and Messihi's messages

April 24, 2020: Brit Hume, a Fox News commentator with 1,190,000 followers, tweeted out a link to the physicians' press conference. Mr. Hume's link was re-tweeted more than a thousand times. 

April 27, 2020: Drs Erickson and Messihi appear on Ingraham Angle

April 27, 2020: Tucker Carlson: New Evidence Means The Coronavirus Far Less Deadly Than We Were Told,, calls Dan Erickson "a researcher"

April 28, 2020: Charles Creitz at FoxNews: "California urgent care doctor questions stay-at-home orders: 'You can get to herd immunity without a vaccine'"

News Coverage

April 29, 2020 Anna-Maja CNN Wire Service, Dubious coronavirus claims by California doctors condemned by health experts
April 29, 2020 Stacey Shepard, Bakersfield dot com,   Local doctors spark widespread debate over virus's death rate, when to reopen

Measles in Samoa: What You Need to Know

First, the Samoan Islands are an archipelago.  

Second, the Samoan Island archipelago include two different political entities, Samoa, a sovereign nation, with historical ties to New Zealand;   and American Samoa, which is a US territory (but it controls its own immigration and border matters). 

Third, earlier this year, Samoa, the sovereign nation, had a terrible immunization tragedy, in which two children were killed by improperly-prepared measles vaccination. 

Fourth, Samoa,  the sovereign nation, has had historically low immunization rates, including the Measles, Mumps, Rubella vaccine (MMR)

Fifth, the current terrible measles outbreak is occurring in Samoa, the sovereign nation. There have been over 700 cases in this nation of 197,000. If the same rate happened in the US, it would be about 1,171,000 cases. There have been 8 suspected deaths: a case fatality rate of 1.1%

Samoa’s Director General of Health Leausa Take Naseri says the crisis is partly his ministry’s fault with coverage rates being at a low 41 per cent and it’s taken a crisis to change that.

He says his staff are working around the clock to keep the epidemic from worsening but it’s far from over.

And a New Zealand infectious disease expert blames her country's lack of action

Dr Helen Petousis-Harris said given New Zealand's responsibility for the 1918 flu epidemic reaching Samoa and wiping out 22 per cent of the population, this country should have done more to protect Samoa from the outbreak.

"I feel deeply ashamed and incredibly angry that this has happened because it was absolutely predictable," Petousis-Harris said.

"It was inevitable that we would export this to Samoa. The situation in Samoa is well known that they have very low levels of immunity there."

Measles is the most contagious disease known to man and in an unimmunised population the infection spreads rapidly, she said.

"A single case can infect on average a further 12 to 18 others. So it virtually explodes. And the only way to prevent that is to have at least 95 per cent of your population immune to stop it from spreading."

The immunologist said successive New Zealand governments had failed their closest neighbour.

"I think ultimately we need to look to our leaders. [Not] the current leadership, or the one before... We've known about these problems for 20 years, so where are you going to place [sic] the buck?

"We've had 20 years to do something about this. This is something we could have done a lot better on."

The head of public health in Samoa, Dr Robert Thomsen, said Samoa had asked New Zealand for medical supplies and also for nurses who were competent to vaccinate, had experience caring for children and who could volunteer their time.

Joyetter Feagaimaali'i, writing in the Samoa Observer, reported

American Samoa has had two suspected measles cases imported from Samoa, but is acting to curb further importation.

But Samoans planning to travel to the territory should carry their immunisation records, as those who are unable to produce them will be turned back.

American Samoa Director of Health, Motusa Tuileama Nua, told the Samoa Observer in an interview that the reports of a border closure are not true, but Samoan citizens entering the territory now have to show their immunization records. 

Update 11/15/2019: Samoa declares state of emergency over measles epidemic as child deaths mount

There have been nine suspected deaths from the disease - most of them children - with more than 700 cases reported.

All isolation wards are full and the main hospital is at capacity. Many children are in critical condition.

The state of emergency will include a ban on any mass gatherings and an urgency will be given to vaccinating 100,000 people.

Is Theresa Deisher a Reliable Expert on Vaccine Ingredients?

This is mostly a guest post, as the majority of the research and writing was done by a medical student, V. Abey. I have added some historical material. 

On October 31, 2019, the anti-vaccine propagandist Del Bigtree invited Theresa Deisher on his show, to promote her unscientific views on fetal cell fragments in some vaccines.

There's a Deisher backstory, which I (Liz) will review briefly. I first became aware of Dr. Deisher through a 2009 post at Respectful Insolence, Thermonuclear stupid about vaccines from someone other than Jenny McCarthy, deconstructing her 2009 white paper, Is Aborted Fetal DNA in Vaccines Linked to Autism? Orac concluded his deconstruction with:

[Deisher’s] strategy panders to the anti-vaccine movement and super-religious conservatives at the same time. Indeed, I grudgingly have to admit that it’s brilliant, from an anti-vaccine PR perspective–except for the fact that the anti-vaccine movement doesn’t really care if “fetal parts” are removed from vaccines because it’s the vaccines they oppose. Still, it may make Dr. Deisher some money. What more could she ask for?

In 2013, Matt Carey at LeftBrain/RightBrain wrote about a petition Dr. Deisher had made to have access to Vaccine Safety Datalink files, to look for a connection between receipt of the varicella vaccine and autism.  The request was denied, in part because Deisher's peers "have found her proposed study to be critically deficient".

In 2014, Deisher published a study, Impact of environmental factors on the prevalence of autistic disorder after 1979. It was (to put it mildly) not well-received. I (Liz) did a summary post of the criticisms at Critical Evaluations of "Impacts of Environmental Factors on the Prevalence of Autistic Disorder after 1979", Deisher et al. 2014   (It was from Genevieve H., writing at Rational Catholic, that I learned that Deisher's son was ill with Burkitt's lymphoma.) Sadly, he died on July 3,  2013. Deisher filed a National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (NVICP) petition on his behalf; it was denied in April, 2019.

In spring, 2015, Deisher published two papers in the journal Issues In Law and Medicine,

1. Sociological Environmental Causes are Insufficient to Explain Autism Changepoints of Incidence, and
2. Epidemiologic and Molecular Relationship Between Vaccine Manufacture and Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence.

In a 2015 blog post, More horrible antivaccine “science” from Theresa Deisher, Orac addressed the dire shortcomings of the "Epidemiologic and Molecular Relationship Between Vaccine Manufacture and Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence" paper.

Earlier in  2019, Washington State legislators were considering HB 1638, which  removed personal and philosophical options  to exempt children from the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine required for school and child care entry.  (The bill passed in May. )  The bill  retains medical and religious exemptions and leaves intact personal belief exemptions for all other required immunizations.

On April 8, 2019. Dr. Deisher published an “Open Letter to Legislators Regarding Fetal Cell DNA in Vaccines”.   The open letter  didn't name the legislators -- but as we can see from the above, it's clearly to Washington State legislators, and Dr. Deisher lives in Washington State.

The "Open Letter" was republished by Brian Shillavy's anti-vaccine, anti-science organization, Vaccine Impact, which is part of his publishing stable, Health Impact.

Claim:Theresa A. Deisher, PhD in molecular and cellular physiology from Stanford, is an expert in stem cell research.

Theresa Deisher may have a PhD from Stanford but her claims don’t reflect an expertise in stem cell research - or biology in general. Her mantra is this: that ‘fetal parts’ used in the making of vaccines somehow infiltrate the brain and recombine with neuronal DNA to cause autism. Interestingly, the only ‘evidence’ of such a phenomenon is found in her own studies, statements and open letters.

Health Feedback is a worldwide network of scientists sorting fact from fiction in health and medical media coverage. Shortly after Deisher's Vaccine Impact article was published, three reputable scientists in the Health Feedback network gave the article a close reading, and and deconstructed them, one by one. One of the reviewers concluded:

The claims are so biologically and immunologically wrong that the entire letter is just a condensed list of fake claims and fear mongering that can be dangerous when read by someone that does not understand biology.

In summary, her claim that homologous recombination of fetal DNA in vaccines leads to mutagenesis and autoimmune disease is proven wrong by basic biology. For this to occur, the vaccine DNA has to integrate into cell surface protein genes and express foreign or altered proteins on the cell; for a reaction as prolific as the one she describes, it would have to occur on a massive scale. This is implausible; it’s the reason why gene therapy isn’t exactly a walk in the park.

Deisher, a molecular biologist, would be more than aware of this. Yet, what I (V.) find most distasteful is her data manipulation.  Let's use the infamous paper Epidemiologic and Molecular Relationship Between Vaccine Manufacture and Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence for examples.

Point one:  she begins by claiming a “worldwide autism epidemic” - an ableist and untrue claim. She also combined data from three random countries, Norway, Sweden and the UK - a recipe for the ecological fallacy (where inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inference for the group to which those individuals belong.)

.Point two: Deisher cultured cells at a Cot1 DNA concentration of 500-750 ng of DNA per 107 cells; she found uptake in some cell lines. It is a subtle deception because, by her own admission, the most DNA was found in Havrix: “276 ng single-stranded and 36 ng double-stranded DNA per vial”. It is certainly interesting that her culture more than doubled the DNA concentration found in vaccines.

Point three: Her graphs use cheap and deceptive tactics to imply significance; for example, Figure 1 has the autism prevalence axis ranging from 0 to 0.6%, whilst the MMR coverage axis ranges from 86 to 95%. Matt Carey of Left Brain/Right Brain normalised the MMR coverage axis to 0 to 100% (as it should be) and the scary curve flattened. Her findings are not remotely analogous to the true scope of DNA in vaccines.

Source: https://soundchoice.s3.amazonaws.com/soundchoice/wp-content/uploads/Deisher-article-2-FINAL1.pdf

Source: https://respectfulinsolence.com/2015/08/24/more-horrible-antivaccine-science-from-theresa-deisher/

Deisher is a conservative Catholic. After she lost her son to Burkitt’s lymphoma, she added childhood cancers to her list of vaccine consequences. I am more than empathetic of her circumstances and I understand how they may have turned a great scientist into a fearful one. But I struggle to find sympathy for Deisher’s deceitful tactics, to demonise a foundation of vaccine development that her own Church finds acceptable.

Did the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices Announce They Wanted to End All Religious Exemptions to Vaccines?

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices met October 23-24, 2019. On the agenda for the 24th was a debriefing on the measles outbreaks in many states, most notably New York State. I wasn't able to watch the October 24 broadcast, because I was traveling.  But suddenly on Facebook, there were tens of repetitions of this message (virtually identical):

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice completes the tri-annual meeting today. They announced they want to end all religious exemptions in the USA.

The public has 48 hrs after the hearing to voice their opinions. Medical tyranny or Preserve 1st Amendment Rights.

I was quite confused by this, because it's the The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, not Immunization Policy,  -- in the United States, individual states, not the federal government, and certainly not a volunteer (if highly qualified) committee-- set policies on vaccines required for school entry. 

I went looking for the source of the assertion that ACIP "was planning to remove all religious exemptions, nationwide. 

I went looking, and I found it.

Let me explain what this is. ACIP broadcasts the meetings, including slides. So this is some kind of screen grab of one of the slides from the New York City Health Department's presentation, judging by the logo.

What could this possibly be referring to?

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed a bill [June 13,2019] ending vaccination exemptions based on religious beliefs [in New York State only], the latest attempt to address the growing measles outbreak, the worst the U.S. has experienced in decades.

Cuomo said plugging the loophole should help contain the spike in measles cases in New York, the state hardest hit by the uptick in the contagious virus due to low vaccination rates in ultra-Orthodox communities.

But somehow, that morphed into "ACIP announced they want to end all religious exemptions in the USA."

I found it on the Facebook page of a woman named Jaclyn Gallion, who is on the board of an anti-vaccine organization called "Informed Choice Washington", and has some unusual ideas about psychological effects of quarantine and believes she has "a gut intuition as a mother that trumps an education,I know what's best for my child and I know my child better than anyone else."

I suspect that a blast went out to the "Informed Choice Network" with Ms. Gallion's interpretation, and people sprung into action.

Evee Gayle Clobes: A Tragic Death, Exploited

Update September 24, 2019: NBC reporters Brandy Zadrozny and Aliza Nadi have published an article on Evee Clobes’s death, and Catie Clobes’s changing story, How anti-vaxxers target grieving moms and turn them into crusaders.. The article includes the medical examiner's report and the sheriff's report, both of which confirm that Evee died of positional asphyxia caused by co-sleeping.

Evee Gayle Clobes was 194 days old when she died. I wept several times while reading and listening to her mother’s account of Evee’s life and tragic death. My heart goes out to her mother, Catie, and Evee’s surviving brother and sister.

But the fact remains: Evee died as a result of unsafe sleep practices. There is no sound scientific evidence for the notion that routine pediatric vaccines can adversely affect an infant’s respiration to the extent that the child would cease breathing and die.

The Facts

Catie Clobes has made public a number of still and video images of Evee, including ones taken within 24 hours of her death. Evee was a bright and lively baby, clearly deeply loved by her mother and siblings.

On Wednesday, February 27, Evee was 6 months, 7 days old. Ms. Clobes took Evee for her 6 months’ well-baby checkup. The vaccines recommended for that visit prevent diseases caused by: hepatitis B; diphtheria; tetanus; pertussis; pneumococcal; and poliovirus. Evee was given two vaccines: (1) Pediarix (which has been approved for use in the US since 2002), covering hepatitis B; diphtheria; tetanus;  pertussis; and poliovirus;  and (2) Prevnar 13 (which prevents pneumococcal disease, and has been approved for use in the US since 2010).

On Thursday, February 28,  (according to Ms. Clobes's March 11 interview with Stop Mandatory Vaccination's Melissa Curtin), this is what happened:

Q: Can you describe more in detail about what happened?

Catie: Evee was put to bed at 9 p.m. on 2/28/19. That whole day she was giggling as usual, eating solid foods, nursing just fine, no temperature, no other signs or symptoms that I could remember. Nothing out of the ordinary. She fell asleep in my arms before I laid her down, and when I did lay her down she didn’t wake up which she usually does. Almost every other night I lay down and go to sleep with her, but I stayed up to watch basketball. I went to bed around 11 p.m. and she was still alive, in her deep sleep and breathing. I kissed her and went to sleep. I woke up to go to the bathroom the next morning, 3/1/19, around 7 a.m., and I started singing her name as I came back in. I thought she was still sleeping hard. She was on her back, the same position that I left her in the night before. I picked rolled her face over and saw that she was passed. Ambulance was called and she was pronounced dead at the Buffalo Hospital. Preliminary autopsy has showed nothing, no abnormalities, no visible reason as to why she passed.

In a video interview with Del Bigtree aired September 12, 2019, Ms. Clobes's account morning went like this (timestamps indicate time from the start of the Highwire video)

44:37 CATIE The day I took her in for her 6-months vaccines she was doing this squealing and smiling thing (video image of Evee on her belly, playing with an older person.) She was in such a good mood. I didn’t even think twice about giving her her vaccinations. The nurse came back and administered two shots, one to each thigh. After four hours, her cheeks started getting really red and she was really warm.

I remember messaging my sister “I think Evee’s teething. Later that night she just seemed a little bit “out of it”. The next day, I tried to feed Evee solid foods and she kept shaking her head. (Video of Evee in a chair, smiling and shaking her head "no". ). She was doing that head shaking on and off all day long.

45:19 CATIE It was about 9 pm and she fell into a deep sleep (Still picture of Evee on her side, on a rumpled blanket with a deep texture). The next morning, I was singing, “Evee, let’s wake up, it's time to eat” (reenactment video. An adult figure is standing over an adult bed with pillows present). (switch back to filmed interview with Catie, who is weeping) I kept calling her name, Evee, Evee. I said it with more panic.

45:44 CATIE (weeping and clearly reliving the experience) I looked at her chest and it wasn’t moving. I picked her up, she was pale and a little bit cold. I started screaming, “God don’t do this to me! Bring my baby back! I called 911. (More video reenactment.) We got into the hospital, I saw the shape of a blanket being put around my daughter. The doctor came up to me and said, I’m sorry but she has passed on. (Image switch back to video interview with Catie) I was in such shock pain is indescribable. And it stays with you and it’s with me now.

46:45 (back to reenactment, with voice-over by Ms. Clobes ) The medical examiner sent out their own investigator. (video interview) They asked me to think of anything I could that I did differently, and then I finally (switch to reenactment) said oh she got her vaccinations. and I’ll never forget it she looked up at me kind of rhetorically and said "She did”, like she’d seen this before. (back to picture of Evee looking rosy-cheeked and kind of out of it).

This is odd. In 2014, Minnesota adopted the CDC's Sudden Unexplained Infant Death Reporting Form (SUIDRF), which forms the basis of structured interviews with a baby's caregivers and other. The form explicitly asks about recent vaccinations. And sleep location.

Image Source: https://www.cdc.gov/sids/pdf/suidi-reporting-form-508.pdf

Then, later in the Bigtree interview:

47:12 DEL: (back to live interview setting with Del).Where were your kids when this moment. Are your kids home, they...

CATIE: They were in school.

DEL: So you are all alone. You go in the check on Evee, and that’s when you find her there. Were you aware, was she conscious at all, was she breathing, you know...

CATIE: No. She was gone.

DEL: Did you know that, or did you have a sense of home, you know, not to...

CATIE: I knew she was gone, in the bedroom,...

Ms. Clobes's narrative of that tragic day takes me back to my early days as a mother. I remember so clearly hovering over my baby's bassinet, staring at her sleeping form, looking to see her little chest rise and fall. Every time she was asleep...is she really breathing? I don't think I lost that worry until she was more than a year old, and physically could pull herself up.

By the time my daughter was 6 months old, she was out of the bassinet in the parental bedroom, and sleeping in a crib in her own room. She was still exclusively breastfed, and wasn't sleeping through the night reliably. She often woke up around 4 am, and I would walk down the hall to nurse her, then she would go back down to sleep, as would I, after trudging back down the hall. My older stepchildren were 8 and 10 at the time of my daughter's birth, and needed to leave the house, breakfasted and lunch provided, around 7:30. Usually I'd get up around 6:30, make sure the older children were up, make their lunches, and then eat my own breakfast with them, then their father (or another adult in the household) would take them to school. Sometimes my daughter would wake up as her siblings thundered around in the morning, but sometimes she wouldn't.

A couple of things struck me about Ms. Clobes's accounts of the morning of Evee's death. Where were the older children? 7 am is a bit early already be in school, and in any case, who got them ready and out the door? School start time in the Clobes's school district isn't until 8:15.   Sunrise that day was 6:55 am, and it was quite chilly: -8 degrees F (-12.8 C). Of course, the older children could have been staying with their maternal grandparents, or their maternal aunt -- both of them quite close to Ms. Clobes. Ms. Clobes was not living with Evee's father -- indeed, he was not listed on Evee's original death certificate, or the obituary published on her first birthday. 

In any case, Ms. Clobes or another adult summoned an ambulance, and Evee and her mother were transported to Buffalo Hospital (about a 25 minute drive from the town the Clobes family lived in), where Evee was pronounced dead. In her interview with Mr.Bigtree, Ms. Clobes mentions having "a feeling of hope" because she heard the EMTs in the ambulance 

52:39 CATIE: I remember someone saying in the back, SATs are up, and I had worked in a nursing home in the past and I knew that that meant oxygen saturations are up, and I can’t even describe it it was a feeling of hope like it was the definition of hope my, and then I just started praying,

I can imagine Ms. Clobes' feelings at that time -- the hope, and then the dashed hope. She truly loved her daughter deeply. The pain of such a loss is like being submerged in a deep, cold, airless place, with no light, no air, ever to be possible again. In that state of mind, you reach for any hope, any support.

Evidently Ms. Clobes left her apartment immediately and moved in with her parents for several months. In the nights after Evee's death, Ms. Clobes said (in her interview with Mr. Bigtree):

54:28 CATIE: Following Evee’s death I was consumed with what could have happened to her and healthy babies do not just die. It prompted me to make a post on Facebook and I said if anyone has had an experience, or heard of a child or infant who had died, please get a hold of me. Within the first 24 hours we* had received hundreds and hundreds of messages. Mothers telling me their story of how their child died right after vaccinations.

(*aside: the "we" is not specified. Ms. Clobes was not living with Evee's father. She may have been at her parents' home, but who is supporting Ms. Clobes in her catastrophic grief at the time isn't clear.)

...and healthy babies do not just die

This assertion is made repeatedly by Ms. Clobes, and also by Mr. Bigtree in the introduction to the interview segment

42:55 DEL: SIDS, or in their case, Sudden Unexplained Death if the child is over 1 year — and it has an equally ridiculous moniker you know, unexplained death, sudden infant death as though children just spontaneously die.

The tragic and heartbreaking fact is, healthy babies and toddlers DO die. SIDS/SUIDS have been declining since the "safe sleep/back to sleep" campaign,  but  "In the U.S. alone, almost 4,000 babies die suddenly and unexpectedly each year at a rate of 0.93 deaths per 1,000 live births." -- from the American SIDS Institute

(image source: https://safetosleep.nichd.nih.gov/safesleepbasics/SIDS/fastfacts)

Who responded to Ms. Clobes's grieving Facebook post? Among others, the leadership of Health Choice Minnesota, which is a deeply anti-vaccine organization, and Melissa Curtin, a writer for  Stop Mandatory Vaccination, Larry Cook's predatory anti-vaccine organization.

Image Source: https://www.stopmandatoryvaccination.com/parent/vaccine-injury/mom-asks-why-her-6-month-old-infant-died-after-getting-6-vaccines/

It's likely that Ms. Clobes was directed to two "death following vaccination" autopsy protocols, one co-published by VacTruth (an antivaccine organization established by John Jeffery Aufderheide), and S.A.N.E Vax, founded by Norma Erickson.  The second "autopsy protocol" was created by  notorious anti-vaccine physician and discredited witness Toni Bark, and published at the anti-vaccine site Circle of Mamas.

Image Source: https://sanevax.org/sanevax-announces-a-parents-guide-what-to-do-if-your-child-dies-after-vaccination/

Image source: http://circleofmamas.com/health-news/death-after-vaccines-autopsy-protocol/

I have seen among my own circle how desperate bereaved parents can reach for answers, even when the child's cause of death is clear. The arguments for these special autopsy protocols can seem compelling, perhaps especially if the parent knows that the sleep behavior they had indulged in increased the risk of death.

The quote that follows is from Ms. Clobes's interview with Mr. Bigtree, September 14, 2019

1:02:43 DEL: so they are trying to use this as proof that this is really a problem co-sleeping, this is where they always try to go with SIDS.

CATIE: I did safely co-sleep with Evee and I’m not ashamed of it. And there are tons of mothers that do it, and it’s no co-incidence that out of all the days that I co-slept with my daughter, that it just so happens, 36 hours after her vaccines, she passed from “positional asphyxiation" Give me a break!

"Safely co-sleeping" is an oxymoron. "Bed-sharing: Parent(s) and infant sleeping together on any surface (bed, couch, chair)" is inherently risky for the child. The American Academy of Pediatrics has had this position since 1994 (The Safe to Sleep® campaign (formerly known as the Back to Sleep campaign) began in 1994 as a way to bring public attention to SIDS and to educate caregivers on ways to reduce SIDS risk.) Some people allege that SIDs was unknown prior to 1969. Vince Ianelli MD disagrees:

"So just because SIDS finally got a name and an ICD9 code in 1969, that doesn’t mean that is when it first appeared."

The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development is leading the "Safe to Sleep" campaign with a wealth of material, including the infographic below, on Accidental Suffocation and Strangulation in Bed (ASSB).

Image Source: https://safetosleep.nichd.nih.gov/resources/providers/downloadable/ASSB_SafeSleep

Ms. Clobes was not anti-vaccine before Evee's death. She vaccinated Evee according to the recommended schedule, and her older children were up to date for their vaccines. But the anti-vaccine lobby were able to convince Ms. Clobes that vaccines caused Evee's death. At some point, the anti-vaccine groups helped Ms. Clobes start a fundraising campaign for a second, private autopsy, by a neuropathologist who has testified in the vaccine court (unsuccessfully) a billboard based public awareness campaign, "Justice for Evee", with a website, promotional merchandise, and more. Law professor Dorit Rubenstein Reiss has written about Ms. Clobes's anti-vaccine journey at Skeptical Raptor, in Evee Gayle Clobes – another tragedy incorrectly blamed on vaccines. Dr. Ianelli has written about how Larry Cook's group actively stalks recently bereaved parents.

Where else could Ms. Clobes, in her grief and rage, find support? From other parents like her, whose children died in their sleep. I don't know if Ms. Clobes was offered grief support by the Midwest Medical Examiner’s Office, or by Evee's pediatrician. The Children's Grief Connection does good work in Minnesota. The Good Grief Network may have support meetings nearby.  There are also online groups:

Bereavement support for families who have lost a baby is one of the cornerstones of our work at First Candle. Too often we sit with grief-stricken parents who never imagined accidental suffocation could happen to their baby. Every parent and caregiver must know that danger.

First Candle is the national non-profit committed to ending these deaths but also providing bereavement support for anyone who has experienced a loss. Our bereavement counselor and CEO are both SIDS parents and understand all too-well the all-consuming grief.

This is a safe space to discuss your grief openly. Any posts that are critical or negative will be deleted immediately. You may also call our grief line at 1-800-221-7437.

Charlie’s Kids Foundation was established in 2011 after Sam and Maura Hanke lost their first son, Charlie, to SIDS. It was founded with the purpose of increasing safe sleep awareness and education with the ultimate goal of reducing the SIDS mortality rate.

The Compassionate Friends is an international organization with chapters in every state that provides "highly personal comfort, hope, and support to every family experiencing the death of a son or a daughter, a brother or a sister, or a grandchild, and helps others better assist the grieving family."

Other parents who have lost children to disease have started awareness campaigns, such as Light for Riley, For Jude for Everyone, Meningitis Angels, and other similar organizations.

It's well-known that the grief following the death of a child, especially a sudden, unexpected death, is more intense that other forms of grief.  I sincerely hope that Ms. Clobes, her surviving children, and her extended family can get the support they need and deserve. 

Who is Mark Green Representing in Tennessee, Exactly? Not His Autistic Constituents, That's For Sure

Mark E. Green is a physician who has also been a politician in Tennessee since 2012.  He served in the Tennessee State Legislature as a Senator since 2012.   In November, 2018, he was elected to represent Tennessee's 7th Congressional District in the US Legislature. 

On December 11, 2018, at a town hall meeting, a constituent  identified herself as the parent of an autistic adult, and asked him about possible cuts to Medicaid funding.

Green did not respond to his constituents' concerns -- remember, both the mother and the autistic young adult are his constituents. What he said, instead, was: 

"Let me say this about autism," Green said. "I have committed to people in my community, up in Montgomery County, to stand on the CDC’s desk and get the real data on vaccines. Because there is some concern that the rise in autism is the result of the preservatives that are in our vaccines.

"As a physician, I can make that argument and I can look at it academically and make the argument against the CDC, if they really want to engage me on it," Green said.

The mistaken idea that vaccines have anything to do with autism causation has been dead for years. No science supports it.

Chasing after mistaken autism causation theories -- especially the vaccine myth -- has robbed the autistic community of much-needed support, for the real needs of autistic people.

Green represents the residents of Chester, Decatur, Giles, Hardeman, Hardin, Henderson, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Lawrence, Lewis, McNairy, Montgomery, Perry, Stewart, Wayne, and Williamson counties as well as areas of Benton and Maury counties.

Who is "up in Montgomery County" that has pushed Green to "get the real data on vaccines"?

Tennessee has a Disability Coalition, which developed this plan in 2015. Neither "autism prevention" nor "vaccines" are mentioned in this document.

Surely Green as a State Senator was aware of the Disability Coalition's plan?  Why did he blather on about vaccines and imaginary malfeasance at the CDC?  

What about Autism Tennessee's view of Rep. Green's autism focus?

I want to know more about who funded his Congressional race. 

By the way, my friend Shannon Rosa has a few things to say to Rep. Mark Green. 

Science is ruining all the fun today.

First up, a reiteration from CDC to refrain from eating cookie dough.

Personally, I prefer the dough -- especially chocolate chip cookie dough -- to baked cookies.  Actually, we call the dough "sushi cookies". 


But seriously folks, don't eat raw flour and raw eggs. Or unpasturized ("raw") milk either. 

Back when I was more gullible, several times  I thought I saw unexplained tracks  in the snow, high above treeline. I longed to catch a glimpse...




Then, pretty solid evidence yetis do not exist.  The claimed physical evidence has bear DNA. Or dogs.  

Sigh.  Next thing you know, Santa Claus will be debunked.